2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 123
LOSSES — 109
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$360
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 11-8-1 (+$250)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,640
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 17):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 17 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: PIT KICKER BOSWELL OVER 6.5 POINTS (-130)...{L}
Player Prop: HOU QB STROUD TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION--YES (-115)...{W}
O/U: SEATTLE/CHICAGO OVER 42.5 (full game)...{L}
Full-Game Team Total: SEATTLE OVER 22.5 points (-120)...{L}
Full Game Side: NEW ENGLAND +5.5...{L}
Full-Game Team Total: DENVER OVER 23.5 points...{W}
Player Prop: DEN QB NIX OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)...{L}
Full-Game Side: LA RAMS -6...{L}
Full-Game Side: CAROLINA +8...[L}
First-Half Team Total: DALLAS OVER 7 (-120)...PUSH
Full-Game Team Total: DALLAS OVER 15.5 (-115)...{L}
Game Prop: BUFFALO TO SCORE FIRST AND WIN THE GAME (-117)...[W}
Player Prop: IND QB RICHARDSON UNDER 46.5 rush yards (-115)...DNP (CANCELLED)
Full-Game Side: LAS VEGAS -1...{W}
First-Half Moneyline: LAS VEGAS (-117)...{W}
Player Prop: LVR ABDULLAH OVER 26.5 rushing yards...{W}
Player Prop: JAX WR THOMAS JR. OVER 76.5 reception yards (-115)...{W}
Player Prop: CLE QB THOMPSON-ROBINSON OVER .5 interceptions (-165)...{W}
Full-Game Side: WASHINGTON -3.5...{W}
Full-Game Side: DETROIT -3.5...{W}
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-115)...{W}
A NOTE ABOUT “MEANINGLESS” LATE SEASON GAMES:
If you really do the research, these are the best games of the season to handicap and bet on. Week 18 matchups means lots of contrasts in the talent of players and their motivations. A "bad" team motivated to win its final game will often crush a "good" or even a "great" team that doesn't care about the outcome of a final-week meaningless game with no playoff or future implications. This is one reason we see many crazy point spreads which have little or no relation to their W-L records.
When it comes to team and player props, these factors are even more amplified. One reason I bet higher amounts in these kinds of games, and make more wagers, is -- we have so many contrasts between teams and players and their motivations. I also do this in NFL preseason, which for many of the same reasons, is very bettable and beatable.
This does not guarantee successful results or a positive outcome, of course. After enjoying a massively successful 2023 betting season, I've not done well in 2024. In fact, this season has been filled with disappointments, despite only a small financial loss. However, this isn't the time to slow down or quit. I believe it's the perfect time to step it up and bet on those situations where we believe positive expectation (+EV) exists. There’s lots of money still to be made, if we make smart wagers.
Good luck to you, to me, and to us -- and happy new year!
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 18)
CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE (SAT.)
- Here's the first game of a Saturday doubleheader of AFC North matchups. The Ravens will win this game easily. That's obvious. What's not so clear is what Baltimore will do when leading, and up by a safe margin. I suspect that once the Ravens have salted the game away (and being up by anything more than two scores should be enough to be confident against a terrible Cleveland offense), they'll rest many starters. Why risk injuries to QB Jackson, RB Henry, and others who will have to play a much tougher first round playoff game next week? This forecast leads to a wager in the underdog. Laying +18 points is a whopping number for any NFL game, especially a divisional matchup. Remember that Cleveland beat Baltimore 29-24 two months ago and while that upset might have been a fluke, many of the same players will be lining up again. Assuming Baltimore jumps out to a lead and Celeveland struggles to score, we should expect the Ravens to play it much safer with lots of running plays and second-stringers on the field. This could also mean betting UNDER on multiple player props, since some of the Baltimore starters might get rest once the win is settled. This also plays into an attractive UNDER wager for the full game. The betting total has been 42 to 42.5 and if you can get 42.5, that's worth a strike. If scoring gets anywhere near this number, its mot likely to come from the Ravens (or possibly even defensive touchdowns), and then we can expect Baltimore to pull the starters and go conservative. As for the Browns and their dreadful offense, these shits have scored a grand total of THIRTEEN points in their last three games--combined. I don't know how the Browns will put up much in what is very likely to be HC Stefanaksi's final game. The Browns might even let 4th stringer QB Zappe see action this week according to reports. This can be tricky since we're taking the underdog in this game. However, when combined with an UNDER bet, this protects us from the loss given it's unlikely to see much scoring from the dog. Note: This is a very early report, posted on Tuesday to get the best possible numbers (which may move closer to gametime). I'll update the picks section on this game once the player props and other odds are posted.
EDIT- Player Prop Update: Reports are that Jackson and Henry will play, perhaps longer than needed. Jackson is chasing another MVP trophy and that could factor into his on-the-field presence in the second half. This is especially true of the Browns defense mails in a no-show performance which might give both stars more time to pad stats. Jackson is listed at 210.5 passing yards, certainly a tempting UNDER given some chance he's pulled early. Henry is listed at 90.5 rushing yards, which would also be a tempting UNDER bet, except for the fact Henry is tanking over defenses that last few weeks (300+ yards in two games) and is one of the NFL's most durable RBs. I'm going to pass on these otherwise tempting prop wagers.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +18
Full-Game Total: CLE-BAL UNDER 42.5
CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH (SAT.)
- Pittsburgh is likely headed to the playoffs while Cincinnati will stay home (only about a 5 percent chance of making the postseason). However, the streaking Bengals look like the much better team right now. Yeah, the Steelers faced a tough gauntlet of foes late in the season, but their no-show efforts vs. PHI, BAL, and KC the past two weeks were an embarrassment and perhaps a revelation. This team is limping into the playoffs. The very fact the Bengals are favored IN PITTSBURGH proves this. Line is now -2, which I think is playable with a team that's won 4 straight, and looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The most staggering stat I've seen on the Bengals belongs to QB Burrow, who remarkably thrown 3 (or more) TD passes in eight straight games, nearing an NFL record. Weather could slow down the Bengals somewhat this week, as temperatures will be in the 20s with some wind and chance of snow (check the late forecast). Nevertheless, I think we can bet Burrow to throw early and often and rack up more yards and points. The prop that tempts me most is "Player to Have Most TD Passes" listed at Burrow -250 and Wilson at +190. Given QB Wilsons' struggles lately, with only 15 TD passes all season and just 3 TD passes in the Steelers current three-game losing streak Burrow looks like a slam dunk. Cincy has the much better receivers, plus incentive to at least keep their playoff hopes alive with a win, while Pittsburgh pretty much knows they'll end up as a Wild Card. I'll go with Cincinnati to cover a low number, and Burrow to pitch more TDs than Wilson.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: CINCINNATI -1.5
Player Prop: CIN QB BURROW to have more TD passes than WILSON (-250)
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON
- Initially, I wanted to bet the Titans' team total OVER 18.5 given the offense has surpassed this O/U in 4 of last 6 games--2 UNDERs were against Jacksonville (go figure). Tennessee also put up 32 points in the Texans in the first meeting. Furthermore, Houston will rest many starters with its division title and playoff spot already secure. Trouble is, Tennessee has a real shot at next year's #1 draft pick with a loss this week which makes the game planning (and handicapping) tricky. The Titans are slightly favored, which tells us betting markets think they'll play to win. I do lean to the Titans and the team total OVER 18.5. However, far too many uncertainties make this game a pass.
Pick: None
BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
- Aside from perhaps QB Josh Allen and the MVP race, Buffalo has nothing to play for here. But can we really take the Patriots who played so pathetic in 33-point ass kicking last week hosting the Chargers? New England also gets the top draft pick with a loss. Toss in legit questions about head coach Mayo's future (he could be replaced by ex-Patriot player/TEN coach Vrabel, which makes lots of sense).....which only adds to all the confusion. New England played Buffalo tough just two weeks ago, but this game has quite different circumstances. Reportedly, QB Drake Maye is going to get the start this week and it sounds like New England plans to play him the entire game. This is still shaky news at this point, but does give me enough confidence to make a value wager on the New England moneyline....priced at +120. The Patriots appear to be playing to win and if Maye is in the game, they certainly won't bench the starters (which admittedly aren't very good). Look for Buffalo to play lots of backups after the first quarter. This is why we aren't seeing any player prop numbers on the Bills as of 48 hours before kickoff (when this is being posted). It's simply a matter of starters facing backups, and a young QB who has played well later in the season. New England also offers a team total of just O/U 16.5, which I think is playable given if we take the OVER we pick up a win on the key number of 17.
Picks:
Full-Game Team Total: NEW ENGLAND OVER 16.5 (-120)
Moneyline: NEW ENGLAND +120
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA
- The Falcons only chance to make the postseason is a win over the Panthers in the final week, combined with the unlikely upset of the Bucs by the Saints. Even Atlanta fans know that's probably not going to happen, which I believe plays into a free-for-all by the Falcons in their last game, at home. The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent, but let's recall that it was a late missed FG last week the probably killed their postseason prospects. Since the QB change from Cousins to Penix, the Falcons just seem to be more optimistic as far as future prospects go. It was a bold move to change QBs so late in the season, especially with the Falcons then in the driver's seat for the division win, which has since proven to be the smart longer-term decision for the frachide. Penix played pretty well in both starts -- both on the road -- and provided some spark to the Falcons which should carry over into the final week. This will also be his first start at home, in ideal conditions versus a bad defense. I think this plays into a major confidence builder for Penix and the Falcons' offense. Given the O/U is 48 points, scoring is expected and Penix should enjoy his best game as a pro. Let's also remember Penix played six years in college, and now enjoyed a full season in the NFL, including two road starts, so he's mature enough to carry out the playbook. Oh, and Penix looked pretty good in both games. The stat-line wasn't huge, but that could be padded here in the dome, indoors. Tampa Bay torched Carolina's pass D for 48 points, 359 yards, and 5 TD passes last week. I don't think we can expect a defense that surrendered those numbers to go on the road a second-straight week and play well versus a motivated team, and a young QB who needs more snaps and throws to generate confidence heading into next season. I look for Atlanta’s future QB to generate enough yardage to break this O/U passing total.
Picks:
Player Prop: ATL QB PENIX OVER 223.5 passing yards (-115)
CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY
- How much does Green Bay really want to put into this game? There's not much incentive for the Packers to show or prove much here, especially if Washington defeats Dallas, as the spread on that game suggests will happen (both GB and WAS are 11-5, but the Packers fall to the #6 seed based on tiebreakers). However, I'm also convinced Green Bay won't want to risk sliding into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak, so they'll take care of business at home versus a deflated divisional foe they've dominated for the past decade. In any other scenario, a lowly team like Chicago would be a contrarian's dream -- getting double digits against an opponent with mixed motivations. However, the 4-12 Bears have looked so awful since they made the coaching change after Thanksgiving that I can't possibly bet on them. The Bears' problems really showed last week in that Thursday night loss to Seattle in which the offense was mercilessly booed for most of the game. The Bear's team scoring team total is just 14.5, skewed to the UNDER. Assuming we believe Chicago will struggle again this week, which is a fair assumption and won’t put many points on the board, that calls for a correlated wager which is available -- which is the Packers to score first AND win the game (both must occur). That's priced at -125. Look for Green Bay to do just enough to win an ugly game.
Pick:
Game Prop: GREEN BAY TO SCORE FIRST AND WIN THE GAME (-125)
JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS
- Despite their awful 4-12 record, the Jaguars have been competitive in the overwhelming majority of games. In fact, nine of their losses were within one score. Two bright spots have been (1) the JAX defense, which has played much better in the last five games down the stretch and (2) WR Thomas, who very quietly has emerged as a top-5 Pro Bowl receiver. He's putting up stellar numbers, which is really impressive since these stats are mostly with a backup QB (Jones). Look for Jacksonville to continue playing tough and keeping focus on improvement, with Thomas potentially getting a dozen targets. He's been thrown the ball 10+ times in five straight games, posting 38 catches in that span. Thomas has also surpassed his receiving yardage projection in each of these past five weeks, posting 91-132-105-86-76 yards respectively. His O/U total has been creeping up each week, but apparently not fast enough as we've never had to sweat the number (I had Thomas OVER last week). These are almost ideal conditions for Thomas, playing indoors in a dome, versus a bad pass defense that ranks #27 in the NFL despite playing arguably the weakest lineup of opposing QBs of any team. Hey, any defense that allows 45 to the Giants and 30 to the Titans sucks ass. Speaking of allowing a whopping 75 points to two of the NFL's worst teams the past few weeks, the Colts are laying more than a FG with nothing to play for. That loss to NYG was an embarrassment, and I can't see them regrouping with a strong effort even in their final game of the season. The emotional toll of blowing that DEN game three weeks ago (recall Taylor’s dumb fumble at the goaline), then struggling to beat bad TEN, then finally losing to even worse NYG with everything to play for and their playoff hopes on the line is not something that's easily overcome. Jacksonville has clearly been the most consistent team lately and with QB Flacco starting, I'm not sure what "future" Indy is trying to develop here in Week #18 (why not play the third-stringer?). Speaking of Flacco, he's been a gunslinger the last two seasons, but also has been reckless with the ball, tossing 7 interceptions in his last four starts. I look for Flacco to make at least one passing blunder in this game. A final thought: I rode the Colts’ covering bandwagon early in the season, but the wheels have fallen off of this team and this is a good spot to fade them.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: JACKSONVILLE +3.5
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION--YES (-130)
Player Prop: JAX WR THOMAS JR. OVER 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS
SEATTLE AT LA RAMS
- Here's one of those wacky-lined games where the playoff-bound team at home is getting nearly a touchdown to a team out of the postseason. Reasons: It's been widely reported that a few of Seattle's key players have added incentives to win this week. A victory gives the Seahawks 10 Ws for the season, quite an accomplishment for first-year HC McDonald. QB Smith could receive a $2 million bonus for winning 10 games, as well -- and Smith (while mistake prone) often puts up great passing stats. Meanwhile, the Rams have already announced QB Stafford is out, which means other starters probably won't see much time either. Garoppolo (now on his 4th team) who hasn't played in more than a year goes under center, and he'll be surrounded by backups. So long as this number stays within the margin of -7, Seattle looks very playable. While they also are missing some players, I think Smith slinging the ball will be the difference. This also plays into an OVER bet on his passing yardage total, which is a very low number that's probably skewed downward because of a few subpar efforts recently. In their first meeting, Smith threw for 368 yards, and now indoors against many Rams’ backups and with $2 million as a huge added motivation, he should break this number. Let’s also add a little sugar with a bet that “Jimmy G” will show some rust and toss at least one ball to the wrong team. He’s only listed at -135 to throw an interception, which seems low given the circumstances. Garoppolo played a limited number of games (6) last season, but still tossed 9 ints vs.just 6 TDs.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: SEATTLE -6.5 (-115)
Player Prop: SEA QB SMITH OVER 240.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Player Prop: LAW GAROPPOLO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION–YES (-135)
MINNESOTA AT DETROIT (SNF)
- The final game of the regular season should be a real crowd pleaser. However, these are usually the games I avoid betting. High-scoring shootouts with lots of passing are often difficult to handicap and variance makes this nothing more than a gamble. The O/U at 56.5 is the highest of the season, but I'm not stepping in front of these offenses the way they're playing right now. Instead, I'll ride the same bet that won easily last week which is the primary Lions' RB to exceed his yardage total. Look for RB J. Gibbs to have a good game and get plenty of touches. He's been the #1 RB since Montgomery went down for the year. As we saw last week, there still looks to be some underestimation on Gibb's O/U on receiving yardage, which is only 33.5. It's up 3 yards from last week, which isn't enough of an adjustment. While the Lion's talented receivers get most of the attention, sometimes a wager on secondary targets offers less variance and greater chances of hitting the OVER. Gibbs has been a solid safety valve pass catcher for QB Goff lately, catching 4-4-5-6 balls in his last three games, good for 46-45-83-30 receiving yards, respectively. Gibbs also has explosive potential, so any breakaway catch and run could eclipse this total. His 10.3 YPC average suggests just three receptions should be enough to hit this projection.
Pick:
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
ADDED WAGERS:
Player Prop: ARZ QB MURRAY OVER 29.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
- The Cardinals' QB is a very hot-cold QB when it comes to passing, but his running ability remains consistent. Murray ranks 4th in rushing yards among QBs this season, exceeding this number in each of his last two games. His 7.3 YPC is among the league leaders. In this final home game and playing versus an opponent that suffered one of the most disappointing seasons of any team, look for Murray to try and add to his stat line. Another reason to expect Murray to tuck it an run more is because RB Conner is out. So, it's the backup and Murray with the legs this week. Given many running QBs are totalled in the 30s and 40s, this O/U at 29.5 offers some value. We certainly know Murray has breakaway potential and is capable of long runs, whether by design or when scrambling due to pressure.
Two-Team / 6-point Teaser: SEATTLE -.5 / WASHINGTON -.5 (-125)
- The Seahawks starters should be able to easily handle the unmotivated Rams playing many backups. Teasing -6.5 down to a half point seems reasonable. / The Commanders may have gotten their act together again and should revenge their earlier loss to the Cowboys, who are banged up for this game (WR lamb is out, who is the best offensive threat). Reports are Dallas may play at least two QBs (Trey Lance is the 3rd stringer). Unfortunately, it's hard to find a passing yardage total on Cooper Rush now based on these reports--otherwise the UNDER looks solid.
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 18 (For those who just want the picks):
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +18...{L}
Full-Game Total: CLE-BAL UNDER 42.5...{L}
Full-Game Side: CINCINNATI -1.5
Player Prop: CIN QB BURROW to have more TD passes than WILSON (-250)
Full-Game Team Total: NEW ENGLAND OVER 16.5 (-120)
Moneyline (to win game): NEW ENGLAND +120
Player Prop: ATL QB PENIX OVER 223.5 passing yards (-115)
Game Prop: GREEN BAY TO SCORE FIRST AND WIN THE GAME (-125)
Full-Game Side: JACKSONVILLE +3.5
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION--YES (-130)
Player Prop: JAX WR THOMAS JR. OVER 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Full-Game Side: SEATTLE -6.5 (-115)
Player Prop: SEA QB SMITH OVER 240.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)
Player Prop: SEA GAROPPOLO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION–YES (-135)
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
Player Prop: ARZ QB MURRAY OVER 29.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)
Two-Team / 6-point Teaser: SEATTLE -.5 / WASHINGTON -.5 (-125)
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