2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 123
LOSSES — 109
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$360
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 11-8-1 (+$250)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,640
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 17):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 17 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: PIT KICKER BOSWELL OVER 6.5 POINTS (-130)...{L}
Player Prop: HOU QB STROUD TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION--YES (-115)...{W}
O/U: SEATTLE/CHICAGO OVER 42.5 (full game)...{L}
Full-Game Team Total: SEATTLE OVER 22.5 points (-120)...{L}
Full Game Side: NEW ENGLAND +5.5...{L}
Full-Game Team Total: DENVER OVER 23.5 points...{W}
Player Prop: DEN QB NIX OVER 228.5 passing yards (-115)...{L}
Full-Game Side: LA RAMS -6...{L}
Full-Game Side: CAROLINA +8...[L}
First-Half Team Total: DALLAS OVER 7 (-120)...PUSH
Full-Game Team Total: DALLAS OVER 15.5 (-115)...{L}
Game Prop: BUFFALO TO SCORE FIRST AND WIN THE GAME (-117)...[W}
Player Prop: IND QB RICHARDSON UNDER 46.5 rush yards (-115)...DNP (CANCELLED)
Full-Game Side: LAS VEGAS -1...{W}
First-Half Moneyline: LAS VEGAS (-117)...{W}
Player Prop: LVR ABDULLAH OVER 26.5 rushing yards...{W}
Player Prop: JAX WR THOMAS JR. OVER 76.5 reception yards (-115)...{W}
Player Prop: CLE QB THOMPSON-ROBINSON OVER .5 interceptions (-165)...{W}
Full-Game Side: WASHINGTON -3.5...{W}
Full-Game Side: DETROIT -3.5...{W}
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-115)...{W}
A NOTE ABOUT “MEANINGLESS” LATE SEASON GAMES:
If you really do the research, these are the best games of the season to handicap and bet on. Week 18 matchups means lots of contrasts in the talent of players and their motivations. A "bad" team motivated to win its final game will often crush a "good" or even a "great" team that doesn't care about the outcome of a final-week meaningless game with no playoff or future implications. This is one reason we see many crazy point spreads which have little or no relation to their W-L records.
When it comes to team and player props, these factors are even more amplified. One reason I bet higher amounts in these kinds of games, and make more wagers, is -- we have so many contrasts between teams and players and their motivations. I also do this in NFL preseason, which for many of the same reasons, is very bettable and beatable.
This does not guarantee successful results or a positive outcome, of course. After enjoying a massively successful 2023 betting season, I've not done well in 2024. In fact, this season has been filled with disappointments, despite only a small financial loss. However, this isn't the time to slow down or quit. I believe it's the perfect time to step it up and bet on those situations where we believe positive expectation (+EV) exists. There’s lots of money still to be made, if we make smart wagers.
Good luck to you, to me, and to us -- and happy new year!
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 18)
CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE (SAT.)
- Here's the first game of a Saturday doubleheader of AFC North matchups. The Ravens will win this game easily. That's obvious. What's not so clear is what Baltimore will do when leading, and up by a safe margin. I suspect that once the Ravens have salted the game away (and being up by anything more than two scores should be enough to be confident against a terrible Cleveland offense), they'll rest many starters. Why risk injuries to QB Jackson, RB Henry, and others who will have to play a much tougher first round playoff game next week? This forecast leads to a wager in the underdog. Laying +18 points is a whopping number for any NFL game, especially a divisional matchup. Remember that Cleveland beat Baltimore 29-24 two months ago and while that upset might have been a fluke, many of the same players will be lining up again. Assuming Baltimore jumps out to a lead and Celeveland struggles to score, we should expect the Ravens to play it much safer with lots of running plays and second-stringers on the field. This could also mean betting UNDER on multiple player props, since some of the Baltimore starters might get rest once the win is settled. This also plays into an attractive UNDER wager for the full game. The betting total has been 42 to 42.5 and if you can get 42.5, that's worth a strike. If scoring gets anywhere near this number, its mot likely to come from the Ravens (or possibly even defensive touchdowns), and then we can expect Baltimore to pull the starters and go conservative. As for the Browns and their dreadful offense, these shits have scored a grand total of THIRTEEN points in their last three games--combined. I don't know how the Browns will put up much in what is very likely to be HC Stefanaksi's final game. The Browns might even let 4th stringer QB Zappe see action this week according to reports. This can be tricky since we're taking the underdog in this game. However, when combined with an UNDER bet, this protects us from the loss given it's unlikely to see much scoring from the dog. Note: This is a very early report, posted on Tuesday to get the best possible numbers (which may move closer to gametime). I'll update the picks section on this game once the player props and other odds are posted.
EDIT- Player Prop Update: Reports are that Jackson and Henry will play, perhaps longer than needed. Jackson is chasing another MVP trophy and that could factor into his on-the-field presence in the second half. This is especially true of the Browns defense mails in a no-show performance which might give both stars more time to pad stats. Jackson is listed at 210.5 passing yards, certainly a tempting UNDER given some chance he's pulled early. Henry is listed at 90.5 rushing yards, which would also be a tempting UNDER bet, except for the fact Henry is tanking over defenses that last few weeks (300+ yards in two games) and is one of the NFL's most durable RBs. I'm going to pass on these otherwise tempting prop wagers.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +18
Full-Game Total: CLE-BAL UNDER 42.5
CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH (SAT.)
- Pittsburgh is likely headed to the playoffs while Cincinnati will stay home (only about a 5 percent chance of making the postseason). However, the streaking Bengals look like the much better team right now. Yeah, the Steelers faced a tough gauntlet of foes late in the season, but their no-show efforts vs. PHI, BAL, and KC the past two weeks were an embarrassment and perhaps a revelation. This team is limping into the playoffs. The very fact the Bengals are favored IN PITTSBURGH proves this. Line is now -2, which I think is playable with a team that's won 4 straight, and looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The most staggering stat I've seen on the Bengals belongs to QB Burrow, who remarkably thrown 3 (or more) TD passes in eight straight games, nearing an NFL record. Weather could slow down the Bengals somewhat this week, as temperatures will be in the 20s with some wind and chance of snow (check the late forecast). Nevertheless, I think we can bet Burrow to throw early and often and rack up more yards and points. The prop that tempts me most is "Player to Have Most TD Passes" listed at Burrow -250 and Wilson at +190. Given QB Wilsons' struggles lately, with only 15 TD passes all season and just 3 TD passes in the Steelers current three-game losing streak Burrow looks like a slam dunk. Cincy has the much better receivers, plus incentive to at least keep their playoff hopes alive with a win, while Pittsburgh pretty much knows they'll end up as a Wild Card. I'll go with Cincinnati to cover a low number, and Burrow to pitch more TDs than Wilson.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: CINCINNATI -1.5
Player Prop: CIN QB BURROW to have more TD passes than WILSON (-250)
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON
- Initially, I wanted to bet the Titans' team total OVER 18.5 given the offense has surpassed this O/U in 4 of last 6 games--2 UNDERs were against Jacksonville (go figure). Tennessee also put up 32 points in the Texans in the first meeting. Furthermore, Houston will rest many starters with its division title and playoff spot already secure. Trouble is, Tennessee has a real shot at next year's #1 draft pick with a loss this week which makes the game planning (and handicapping) tricky. The Titans are slightly favored, which tells us betting markets think they'll play to win. I do lean to the Titans and the team total OVER 18.5. However, far too many uncertainties make this game a pass.
Pick: None
BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
- Aside from perhaps QB Josh Allen and the MVP race, Buffalo has nothing to play for here. But can we really take the Patriots who played so pathetic in 33-point ass kicking last week hosting the Chargers? New England also gets the top draft pick with a loss. Toss in legit questions about head coach Mayo's future (he could be replaced by ex-Patriot player/TEN coach Vrabel, which makes lots of sense).....which only adds to all the confusion. New England played Buffalo tough just two weeks ago, but this game has quite different circumstances. Reportedly, QB Drake Maye is going to get the start this week and it sounds like New England plans to play him the entire game. This is still shaky news at this point, but does give me enough confidence to make a value wager on the New England moneyline....priced at +120. The Patriots appear to be playing to win and if Maye is in the game, they certainly won't bench the starters (which admittedly aren't very good). Look for Buffalo to play lots of backups after the first quarter. This is why we aren't seeing any player prop numbers on the Bills as of 48 hours before kickoff (when this is being posted). It's simply a matter of starters facing backups, and a young QB who has played well later in the season. New England also offers a team total of just O/U 16.5, which I think is playable given if we take the OVER we pick up a win on the key number of 17.
Picks:
Full-Game Team Total: NEW ENGLAND OVER 16.5 (-120)
Moneyline: NEW ENGLAND +120
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA
- The Falcons only chance to make the postseason is a win over the Panthers in the final week, combined with the unlikely upset of the Bucs by the Saints. Even Atlanta fans know that's probably not going to happen, which I believe plays into a free-for-all by the Falcons in their last game, at home. The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent, but let's recall that it was a late missed FG last week the probably killed their postseason prospects. Since the QB change from Cousins to Penix, the Falcons just seem to be more optimistic as far as future prospects go. It was a bold move to change QBs so late in the season, especially with the Falcons then in the driver's seat for the division win, which has since proven to be the smart longer-term decision for the frachide. Penix played pretty well in both starts -- both on the road -- and provided some spark to the Falcons which should carry over into the final week. This will also be his first start at home, in ideal conditions versus a bad defense. I think this plays into a major confidence builder for Penix and the Falcons' offense. Given the O/U is 48 points, scoring is expected and Penix should enjoy his best game as a pro. Let's also remember Penix played six years in college, and now enjoyed a full season in the NFL, including two road starts, so he's mature enough to carry out the playbook. Oh, and Penix looked pretty good in both games. The stat-line wasn't huge, but that could be padded here in the dome, indoors. Tampa Bay torched Carolina's pass D for 48 points, 359 yards, and 5 TD passes last week. I don't think we can expect a defense that surrendered those numbers to go on the road a second-straight week and play well versus a motivated team, and a young QB who needs more snaps and throws to generate confidence heading into next season. I look for Atlanta’s future QB to generate enough yardage to break this O/U passing total.
Picks:
Player Prop: ATL QB PENIX OVER 223.5 passing yards (-115)
::::: more to come….please return regularly throughout the week for more updates :::::
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 18 (For those who just want the picks):
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