2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 131
LOSSES — 117
PUSH —
NET WIN/LOSS — -$475
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-8-1 (-175)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,525
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 18):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 18 REPORT HERE
Full-Game Side: CLEVELAND +18...{L}
Full-Game Total: CLE-BAL UNDER 42.5...{L}
Full-Game Side: CINCINNATI -1.5...{W}
Player Prop: CIN QB BURROW to have more TD passes than WILSON (-250)...{P}
Full-Game Team Total: NEW ENGLAND OVER 16.5 (-120)...{W}
Moneyline (to win game): NEW ENGLAND +120...{W}
Player Prop: ATL QB PENIX OVER 223.5 passing yards (-115)...{W}
Game Prop: GREEN BAY TO SCORE FIRST AND WIN THE GAME (-125)...{L}
Full-Game Side: JACKSONVILLE +3.5...{W}
Player Prop: IND QB FLACCO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION--YES (-130)...[L}
Player Prop: JAX WR THOMAS JR. OVER 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS...{W}
Full-Game Side: SEATTLE -6.5 (-115)...{L}
Player Prop: SEA QB SMITH OVER 240.5 PASSING YARDS (-115)...{L}
Player Prop: SEA GAROPPOLO TO THROW AN INTERCEPTION–YES (-135)...{W}
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 33.5 receiving yards (-115)...{L}
Player Prop: ARZ QB MURRAY OVER 29.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115)...{L}
Two-Team / 6-point Teaser: SEATTLE -.5 / WASHINGTON -.5 (-125)...{W}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Wild Card Round)
LA CHARGERS at HOUSTON
This game presents a real test as to what factors we prioritize in handicapping. Houston looks like the weakest team in the entire playoff field, right now. Houston made the postseason only because they play in such a bad division and automatically get six soft opponents on their schedule. The Texans posted a lackluster 5-6 W-L record among non-division opponents. Meanwhile, the Chargers look like a team built for the playoffs. They have more wins than the Texans. LAC also allowed the NFL's fewest points (17 PPG). They were 6-3 on the road and entered this contest on a three-game win streak. The Chargers being favored by -3 makes sense.
However, at least three solid betting trends seem to indicate Houston is the right side of a bet.
(1) First, over the past decade, home underdogs in playoff games are 6-4 SU and an even more impressive 8-2 ATS heading into this postseason.
(2) Second, as for LAC's superior W-L record, in the 30 NFL playoff games since 2003 where the visiting team had a better record, they are just 14-16 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (38 pct.). So, team records apparently have no value, except driving up the price on the perceived superior team.
(3) Finally, home teams that score less than 23 points (i.e. below-average offenses) actually have a stellar record in playoff games -- going 14-5 SU and 13-5-1 ATS (72 pct.) the past 15 seasons.
Last year, Houston was in a nearly identical situation as a home host versus a team that appeared to be on the rise (at the time). The Texans with a young QB and lots of inexperience faced the Browns led by playoff veteran Joe Flacco. Houston played its best game of the season, winning 45-14. That big margin is unlikely to happen again, but it does reveal Houston as a team capable of stepping up at home when the games count the most.
In addition to betting on the home underdog Texans getting points in the first-half (+1.5) and for the full game (+3), I'll add a wager on Houston's team total to break O/U 19.5 points. Catching a win on 20 is essential here, as that's a key number. The Texans have one of the better long kickers on their roster with Fairbairn. He's an 87 percent kicker on attempts, with a very impressive 13/16 on 50+ FG attempts. A good kicker really helps on a wager like this, especially with a win at 20. The Chargers' defense also wasn't nearly as solid on the back end of the 2024 season, allowing more than a TD more per game in their final eight contests. Houston should be able to hit the 20+ mark.
On player props, I see three worthy wagers. Strangely enough, all involve PAC QB Herbert.
(1) Let's begin with Herbert's rushing yardage. He's been bothered by an ankle injury much of the season. That's reduced his mobility, yet not affected his play as a passer. What's decreased significantly is his running. Herbert has surpassed 20+ yards in only 6 of 17 games this season. We saw a fluky 42-yard scamper last week, and another 28-yarder two weeks before. Perhaps those two outlier runs skewed the number here, but Herbert is not a rushing QB and I doubt he'll break this number without a long run.
(2) The Chargers' reputation has been transformed by HC Harbaugh into a run-heavy team. However, the later half of the season saw Herbert's passing figures increase steadily. Take a look at his by-game week-to-week statline. Herbert didn't exceed 30+ attempts until week 5. Yet, he's thrown for 30+ attempts in each of his last five games. LAC wideouts have also improved, so more balls have been thrown to those targets. I'm also wagering the Chargers will be in a tight game or perhaps trailing, which also tends to increase pass attempts. In games when the Chargers didn't have to produce much offense, they relied more on the run. I don't expect conservative play to happen in a road playoff game.
(3) See the previous points (above) about QB Herbert's passing attempts. This plays strongly into him also breaking the O/U on pass completions. Herbert is a 66 pct. passer, often relying on short high-percentage throws. His completion numbers in the last five games show 28-26-23-21-21 (note the increase as most recent games are first), and most of those were games won by the Chargers in which passing wasn't as necessary. Also, unlike much tougher outdoor games like NWE, KC, CLE, DEN, and PIT (which made up five of their road games this season) wind and field conditions in Houston, much like the dome in LA, are ideal for passing.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 (-115)
First-Half Side: Houston +1.5 (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: Houston OVER 19.5 points (-130)
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 20.5 pass completions
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 31.5 pass attempts
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert UNDER 20.5 rushing yards
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE
I don't understand this line. I'd list this as 7, at most. We are getting +9.5 points in one of the NFL's best rivalries, which has produced an overwhelming number of close games in recent seasons. Nine of the last 10 contests have been one-score outcomes. Betting markets have underestimated Pittsburgh all season long, failing to credit them as an experienced, well-coached team that often thrives in the role as an underdog. Steelers HC Tomlin ranks as perhaps the best coach in NFL history as an underdog. He's 38-14-1 ATS when getting points against AFC North opponents (71 pct.), and that includes an even better mark of 13-3-2 (80 pct.) when getting points against Baltimore. I understand bettors who decide to skip this game. But how anyone can fade the history of this rivalry in laying -9.5 points makes no sense to me.
Of course, Pittsburgh stumbled into the playoffs on a 4-game slide. However, that was versus a gauntlet of tough foes -- including PHI, KC, BAL, and CIN (playing for its playoff life). To be impartial, this marks yet another brutal test versus a team that looks unbeatable when at their best. I don't expect covering will be easy, nor that Pittsburgh will even win it. However, staying within double digits is more than reasonable, especially when we consider the Raven's lowly 3-6 SU mark in playoff games under Harbaugh since their Super Bow win nearly a decade ago, which includes a disappointing 2-4 SU mark with QB Jackson.
No doubt, BAL boasts a far superior offense. However, that advantage is offset by PIT with the better defense. These have been the type of games Tomllin-coached teams have more often than not risen to the occasion. Assuming we believe defense wins championships, PIT clearly deserves our trust. Let's also point out the Ravens' pass defense ranks #31 in the NFL (yardage allowed). If QB Wilson and the Steelers passing game can establish any kind of rhythm, BAL is certainly vulnerable to the pass. Hence, even playing from behind (which usually means throwing more) provides the Steelers with some advantages.
Pittsburgh appears to be a very average team, offensively speaking (based on the stats). However, they've cleared this total in both games against the Ravens, this season. This low of a number is usually reserved for losing teams with bad offenses, or matchups against great defenses. That's not the case in this matchup. The Steelers should reach this very low threshold, based apparently on some overreaction to their current losing streak.
Finally, give me the NFL's leading scorer to go OVER a low number. PIT K Chris Bosell is enjoying a monster season, with 158 total points scored. He's perfect on XPs and 41/44 on FGs, including 13/15 beyond 50 yards. Elite kickers are almost always totalled at 7.5+ but this total is lower based (presumably) on the Steelers' offensive concerns. Oddly enough, if PIT struggles -- especially in the red zone -- that's a huge bonus on a prop like this with Boswell. I understand that totalling Boswell at 7.5 would have to be juiced heavily to the UNDER. That said, a standard vig of -115 on this player prop with the best kicker in the league (statistically speaking) and also getting an average point total (6.5 is the standard O/U) strikes me as a strong value with the OVER. FWIW, Boswell exceeded the 6.5 figure in 12/17 games this season.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Pittsburgh +9.5
Full-Game Team Total: Pittsburgh OVER 16.5 points (-115)
Player Prop: PIT K Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-115)
DENVER at BUFFALO
The first thing to look at in any January game played in Buffalo is the weather. That shouldn't be much of a factor (but check the late forecast--this is being posted Friday night, 36 hours prior to kickoff).
Buffalo is favored up to -9, which seems a bit high. While Buffalo can make a convincing case for being the best all-around team in the NFL right now, I just cant bring myself to lay this high a number (nor can I bet against them, either). Accordingly, the side action here will be a pass. Buffalo is undefeated at home this season, but DEN brings enough talent on both sides of the ball to potentially be a problem for the Bills. Let's remember DEN ranks as the #4 team in defense this season, so scoring shouldn't be so easy for Buffalo. The Bills also enjoyed a +24 turnover differential, easily tops in the NFL. So long as Denver doesn't commit turnovers, they should stick around.
Rookie QBs making their first playoff start are usually a bad bet, especially on the road versus a top team like Buffalo. However, QB Nix has looked very much like a veteran as the season went along and is now being given lots of added playbook options. HC S. Payton's trust and confidence has been rewarded with outstanding offensive production, especially in the second half of the season. Buffalo gets lots of praise for their offense, and rightfully so. Yet, Denver's point production has been nearly as impressive, posting scoring totals of 38-24-27-31-41-29-38 points in those past seven games. Meanwhile, Buffalo's pass defense ranks #28 in yards allowed. I think we can expect DEN to exceed two numbers given their proven scoring ability combined with BUF’s vulnerability to the pass -- so, I’m OVER on the Broncos’ team point total (19.5) and QB Nix to hit 2 TD passes, or more. What makes that later prop wager attractive is the price on that player prop, at +130.
More on Nix to throw OVER 1.5 TD passes: Given that DEN is a very average rushing team, the Broncos can be expected to throw, even down near the goal line. Even if BUF runs up points that also forces DEN to throw more, and that should translate into a few TD passes. Nix's passing TD pass stat-line over the past eight games is strong evidence for a wager on the OVER 1.5, especially at the generous payout. Nix's TD passes since Week 9 are as follows: 2-4-2-1-3-2-3-4....that's 7/8 games with 2+ TD passes. And for anyone who says those were easy stat-padding games, keep in mind Denver had to win those games down the stretch to make the playoffs.
All the pressure is on BUF here, which is expected to win. DEN already has met their goals by making the playoffs. I think this plays into a more comfortable situation for the big dog and I believe the Broncos can score enough to keep things interesting (or at least cover our numbers).
Picks:
Full-Game Team Total: Denver OVER 19.5 (-115)
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 1.5 TD passes (+130)
GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA
The Packers at +5 are probably the right side here. Given that Eagles' QB J. Hurts' current situation comes with some uncertainties, taking the points appears to be the smart pick in a game between two teams with similar strengths and styles. Hurts has missed the last three games (actually 2 games, and 3 quarters of the third). So, rust is a legit concern. Even heading into this week's practices, he was not certain to play, but has since cleared the league's strict concussion protocol. Given that Hurts is such a dangerous runner, and always a threat in short-yardage situations, his condition could adversely impact the game plan. Perhaps this won't matter at all--but it should worry anyone betting on the Eagles, especially laying this many points.
Speaking of betting on the Eagles, I have a significant wager on them to win the NFC. We shouldn't let past wagers influence how we bet now, as each game and situation is an independent question, with variable odds. Yet, I can't ignore a pending five-figure wager on the Eagles, and take their opponent this week, even though that's likely the correct side. So, I'm passing on this game altogether.
No Action
WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY
Lost in the storm of playoff betting information all over the Internet, Tampa Bay has quietly won its fourth consecutive division title. That means the Bucs have now hosted a Wild Card round playoff game for four straight years, and made the playoffs five consecutive seasons. I expect that extensive playoff experience among the roster and coaching staff will significantly help the Bucs to both win and cover in this game, particularly when facing a younger team with a rookie QB which last made the postseason back in 2020 (ironically enough, losing at Tampa Bay).
Both teams bring explosive offenses, which is the reason this is the highest total on the board this week -- O/U 50. That reduces the impact of laying -3 somewhat, as lower-scoring games have to take getting the FG (more) into account. The Bucs have played a few lackluster games recently, losing at Dallas and failing to cover last week in a scare versus Carolina. But we've also seen this team beat the league's best teams (this season) -- defeating Detroit, Philadelphia, and LA Chargers. Oh, and Tampa Bay already defeated Washington 37-20 on this same field, though that was very early in the season.
Credit Washington for an outstanding season, but let's also scroll through their schedule which shows a creampuff schedule. The Commanders faced only five playoff teams (winning just one of the five, which was the 22-point fourth qtr. comeback hosting Philadelphia). I've seen nothing to inspire confidence the Commanders will go on the road and upset an experienced division winner.
Let's also point out a surprising trend, which was alluded to earlier: "There have been 30 NFL playoff games since 2003 in which the road team won more games in the regular season. These visitors are just 14-16 SU and 11-18-1 ATS (37.9 pct.)." Credit VSIN. This is counterintuitive, but it applies to taking the Bucs here.We can also look for plenty of points to be scored. Washington and Tampa Bay posted a combined 23 OVERs and just 11 UNDERs during the season. Back in Week 1, 57 points were scored in the meeting between these two, and that was with WAS QB Daniels making his first NFL start. We've seen the Bucs light up the scoreboard plenty of times, as QB Mayfield and his receiving targets are as dangerous as any team in the league. Both defenses -- ranking in the bottom half of the league -- are vulnerable both to the run and pass, which should translate into points.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Tampa Bay -3
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-160)
Full-Game Total: OVER 50
MINNESOTA vs. LA RAMS (at Phoenix)
This game was moved from LA to PHX due to the California wildfires. The line shifted from MIN -1 to MIN -2.5. I already liked LAR as a "home" dog. Now, I like them even more, for a number of reasons.
As I mentioned in the LAC-HOU writeup, there are some strong tends which apply to home dog (even though this game shifted to another location, it's still technically a "home" game.). Here are three more reasons to take LAR +2.5:
- The Rams' offensive line has steadily improved over the course of the season, especially as the full team became healthier. Remember, the Rams started the season 1-4. They have gone 10-2 since then (I'm disregarding last week's game with few Rams starters playing). I don't think enough weight has been given to this impressive run, which included wins versus Buffalo -- and Minnesota. More on the Rams' OL....they didn't give up a single sack in 7 of QB M. Stafford's last 10 starts. If Stafford has time to throw, that's huge.
- The Rams' defense is also peaking at the perfect time, Again, throw out LAR's final (meaningless) game of the season, and the Rams' stingy defense allowed just 24 points in their previous three games.
- Minnesota put up monster offensive numbers this season. However, QB S. Darnold is coming off his worst game, a dreadful display in the Vikings' most important contest of the season in which he went 18/41 for only 166 yards. That was very un-Darnold like given his otherwise impressive numbers this season. Trouble is, this will be Darnold and the Vikings' fourth tough test in a row (three on the road) having to face @DET, GB, and @SEA.
As for Sam Darnold, I'll continue to fade him. It's one thing to run up stats in mid-season games and quite another to win in the playoffs. Stafford has already proven himself in these big games (4-4 record, including a Super Bowl win). By contrast, Darnold (who has played on some really bad teams) has yet to throw a pass in a playoff game (note: he did backup B. Purdy in SFO). Darnold's accuracy is certainly a concern, playing vs. a good Rams' defense and coming off such a bad big game. His completion total is listed at O/U 22.5 this week, which looks a bit high. He exceed that number in just 4/17 starts this season. While I can see Darnold putting up 40 passes in this game, I'm fading that he'll hit 23+ completions.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: LA Rams +2.5 (-105)
First-Half Side: LA Rams +1.5 (-120)
Player Prop: MIN QB Darnold UNDER 23.5 pass completions (-115)
FINAL PICKS FOR Wild Card Round (For those who just want the picks):
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 (-115)
First-Half Side: Houston +1.5 (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: Houston OVER 19.5 points (-130)
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 20.5 pass completions
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 31.5 pass attempts
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert UNDER 20.5 rushing yards
Full-Game Side: Pittsburgh +9.5
Full-Game Team Total: Pittsburgh OVER 16.5 points (-115)
Player Prop: PIT K Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-115)
Full-Game Team Total: Denver OVER 19.5 (-115)
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 1.5 TD passes (+130)
Full-Game Side: Tampa Bay -3
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-160)
Full-Game Total: OVER 50
Full-Game Side: LA Rams +2.5 (-105)
First-Half Side: LA Rams +1.5 (-120)
Player Prop: MIN QB Darnold UNDER 23.5 pass completions (-115)
Sign up at www.Betcoin.ag today with the promo code NOLAN and get a 100% Bonus on your first deposit (Contact support by chat, ticket or email to claim)
Comments