2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 138
LOSSES — 127
PUSH — 4
NET WIN/LOSS — -$955
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-10 (-$480)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,045
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 19):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 19 REPORT HERE
Full-Game Side: Houston +3 (-115)...{W}
First-Half Side: Houston +1.5 (-115)...{W}
Full-Game Team Total: Houston OVER 19.5 points (-130)...{W}
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 20.5 pass completions...{L}
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert OVER 31.5 pass attempts...{W}
Player Prop: LAC QB Herbert UNDER 20.5 rushing yards...{W}
Full-Game Side: Pittsburgh +9.5...{L}
Full-Game Team Total: Pittsburgh OVER 16.5 points (-115)...{L}
Player Prop: PIT K Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-115)...{L}
Full-Game Team Total: Denver OVER 19.5 (-115)...{L}
Player Prop: DEN QB Nix OVER 1.5 TD passes (+130)...{L}
Full-Game Side: Tampa Bay -3...{L}
Moneyline: Tampa Bay (-160)...{L}
Full-Game Total: OVER 50...{L}
Full-Game Side: LA Rams +2.5 (-105)...{W}
First-Half Side: LA Rams +1.5 (-120)...{W}
Player Prop: MIN QB Darnold UNDER 23.5 pass completions (-115)...{L}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Divisional Round)
--- HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY ---
This appears to be a matchup of the best and worst teams remaining in the playoffs. I'm giving Kansas City the distinction as the "best" team, because as two-time reigning Super Bowl champs, until they're de-throwned, they deserve that recognition. As for Houston, a 10-7 W-L record in this NFL's worst division along with a dead-even 372 (scored) to 372 (allowed) points tally is evidence of mediocrity. The Chiefs, who are favored by -8.5 appears to be more than justified. In fact, I can see this line moving to -10 given public perceptions of the two teams. Not saying it will move to -10, but it should.
Kansas City enjoys advantages in every conceivable category. The Chiefs are rested (off a bye week). Actually, they’ve had two weeks to prepare as the final game was mostly with backups. HC Reid is a staggering 28-3 coming off a bye, which shows extraordinary preparation for the following game. KC is 8-0 SU at home this season. And, of course, the Chiefs enjoy a massive edge in big game experience.
January weather would normally be a neutralizer (translation -- edge to the underdog). However, the Chiefs have a long history of not just playing well, but winning in adverse conditions. Contrast this proven experience with Houston, which has never played a big game in frigid weather. The Saturday forecast calls for temperature around 20 degrees, slight chance of snow, and some wind. Give me weather-tough teams against domers anytime.
Only four weeks ago, Kansas City defeated Houston on this same field 27-19. The game was closer than that score indicates. The Chiefs covered a low spread, but might have lost outright were it not for a key HOU WR injury in the second half which deflated the entire team. Playing well in Kansas City previously could give the Texans a boost of confidence. However, I also see that close game as a wake up call to Kansas City, which knows they can't take any team lightly, especially after so many previous tight games this season, including some lucky wins. I also expect the Chiefs to not only outplay the Texans, but the edge in coaching to show here.
Credit HOU QB Stroud for a solid game last week against a good defense. That said, he's not in the same league as KC QB Mahomes, especially come playoff time. Mahomes' 15-3 SU career playoff record stands near the best of all time.
Defensively, Kansas City was the 4th best team in the NFL in points allowed and 6th best in yardage allowed (and that includes a meaningless 0-38 blowout loss in the final game of the season when most starters rested). Houston played a lot of cream-puffs on its schedule and yet ranked very mediocre in most defensive categories. As for their offense, the Texans were 19th in scoring and 22nd in YPG. That’s below average.
It's extremely rare to see a public team like Kansas City listed as a bargain in betting markets, but I think this line should be -10. So long as it stays lower than that, the Chiefs will get my money. I'll add a wager on the Chiefs moneyline (to just win the game). These bridge-jumper lay prices can be dangerous, but sometimes the disparity between teams is so one-sided, the investment price is warranted--and I think it is warranted at -455.
Somewhat correlated to a good day by Kansas City, I'm wagering that Patrick Mahomes will NOT throw an interception. I was shocked to see this player prop number not juiced up, perhaps to at least -150 (that's where I'd list it). First, Mahomes is likely to be ahead later in the game, which means fewer throws. We always want the team that doesn't have to throw desperation passes late when it comes to prop betting on interceptions. Moreover, Mahomes recent form as a passer is stellar. Fact: Mahomes hasn't thrown an int. since Nov. 17, which was their loss at Buffalo. That's SIX GAMES (and 226 pass attempts) in which Mahomes hasn't tossed a pick. So, seeing the "NO" side of this prop at only -115 vig strikes me as perhaps the best player prop in this matchup. Given Mahomes’ accuracy, especially in big games, I'm glad to take the “NO” here. Note: Be warned that "interception" props can be very volatile--all it takes is a tipped ball or other freak play to lose.
A final thought: Contrarianism in NFL betting can be profitable, when applied to the right situations. This is not such a situation. In poker, we used to call the trap of out-thinking the obvious decision as “fancy play syndrome.” Sometimes, the optimal decision can be very straightforward and all the evidence is clear and points in just one direction (to one team). That's the synopsis for this game, which Kansas City should win, likely by a double digit margin.
Prediction: Kansas City 30, Houston 16
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -8.5
Moneyline: Kansas City (-455)
Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes will throw an interception--NO (-115)
--- WASHINGTON at DETROIT ---
Betting against Detroit right now seems like jumping in front of a roaring train, hoping it will slow down and stop. This could be a dumb thing to do -- i.e, a foolish wager. Nonetheless, I'm riding with the visiting Commanders, who appear to be getting too-generous a number of points. Detroit is favored by -9, which is probably an ideal line given how the Lions have been playing in their best season as a franchise in nearly 70 years. Trouble is, as good as the Lions have been, the Commanders have also been quite impressive. Washington has won six straight, scoring 30 points a game during that stretch. Against a Lions' defense which continues to suffer from injuries, the Commanders have a potent dual-threat offense and look to be a good bet to stay within the big margin. A few player props will also compliment the expectation Washington will stick around in an entertaining and high-scoring game.
We need not spend much time on how impressive the Lions' offense has been, and that's an obvious concern. In the earlier game, I noted how the Chiefs enjoy advantages in nearly every category, which is the reason I was willing to lay so many points. But here, I'm not so sure the Lions enjoy those same advantages--certainly not to the extent of the other matchup. For one thing, much like Washington, Detroit is relatively new to the playoff homestretch. The Lions produced two one-score playoff wins last years, and they're a better, more seasoned team now. Nonetheless, I don't see them as 9 points better than a 13-5 team playing as well as any team at the moment.
As for player props, it makes no sense that this game is totalled as one of the highest in the NFL this season (O/U currently 55.5), yet a few yardage totals aren't adjusting for this fact. First, we must from the spread Washington will be throwing the ball (especially if trailing), and that should mean good passing yardage numbers for rookie QB sensation Jayden Daniels. Let's be clear--he's no longer a rookie at this later stage of the season. He’s looking more like another Larmar Jackson, only with a better arm. In his first playoff start on the road versus Tampa Bay, Daniels made the plays -- both with his arm and by running. Daniels faces a similar style of attack from Detroit, known for blitzing at a high rate. The Lions were able to pressure opposing QBs during most weeks, but none brings the skill set of Daniels, who continues to show improvement. Let's add some ugly Lions numbers lately--since their injuries Detroit's porous defense surrendered the most passing yards (1,736) and the 2nd-highest yards per pass attempt (8.15) in the NFL since Dec. 1st. Oddly enough, with all this data, Daniels; O/U on passing yardage is only 232.5, which is in the range of NFL averages. We can't have a super high total, yet average passing yardage projections. So, one of these numbers is likely wrong. My guess is Daniels' passing yardage total is too low, so give me the OVER. Second, I'm riding the DET RB Gibbs receiving yardage prop to go OVER for another week. I realize counterpart Montgomery might play (still questionable, as this is being written). Still, Gibbs has been a solid secondary target for QB Goff and he certainly has breakaway extra-yardage potential. Gibbs' receiving yardage is just 24.5, which will trigger another OVER wager. Gibbs has 4+ catches in six straight games, posting individual yardage totals of 31-46-45-83-30, respectively, in those games.
A game with possible fireworks calls for a bit more aggression. On the possibility that Washington jumps out to an early lead and ultimately upsets Detroit, I'm making a team prop bet -- the Commanders to score first and also win. Given this is expected to be a high-scoring game with more volatility, that amplifies the chances of a surprise. Naturally, I don't expect Washington to win. But the +650 payout is too good to pass. Assuming Detroit's defensive injuries factor into the outcome, this is a great value.
Prediction: Detroit 34, Washington 27
Picks:
Full-Game Side: Washington +9
Game Prop: Washington to score first and win the game (+650)
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120)
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115)
--- LA RAMS at PHILADELPHIA ---
This looks like a terrible spot for the Rams. But I also have trouble laying so many points with the favored Eagles. The line is Philadelphia -6 which is now up to -6.5 in some places. So, I'm skipping either side and concentrating instead on other numbers. In fact, this line looks like a coin flip.
LA Rams were the more impressive team in the Wild Card round. While the Rams looked well balanced and dominated Minnesota, the Eagles struggled during much of their game hosting Green Bay. To its credit, Philadelphia's defense came up big and proved to be the difference. If the Eagles' defense continues playing at this high level (they've allowed just 10 points per game in the last five, if we throw out one bizarre 22-point meltdown 4Q road loss at Washington), the Eagles could be headed to the Super Bowl. I certainly hope so, since I've got a huge wager riding on that futures result.
The strength of the Eagles' defense compels me to play the UNDER 44 for the total in this game. Both teams bring in solid rushing attacks that have played well lately, especially Philadelphia (#2 in the NFL). RB Barkely could easily run for another 100+. In fact, he destroyed in the Rams in their first meeting, going insane for 255 yards (including two long 70+ runs). How many times will Barkley be fed the ball? 20...25...30? All of this means a ticking clock, and I don't see the Rams slowing down the RB who is now at his career best, and came close to breaking the NFL's all-time rushing yard record in a season. The UNDER is attractive for another reason, which is the uncertainty of the Eagles' passing game. PHI QB Hurts was just 13/21 for a paltry 131 yards last week. We presume he's 100 percent healthy now after missing (nearly) 3 games due to injury. Even in Hurts starts, his yardage numbers show 131-290-108-118-179-221-202 the last 7 weeks. Those are among the lowest of any playoff QB. Of course, this doesn't mean PHI's passing game is weak; more like the rushing game is so strong. However we interpret these numbers, PHI should eat up lots of clock. I'm also counting on the Eagles' defense to slow down the Rams enough to fall under the key O/U total which is 44.
On player props, let's go with LAR QB Stafford to toss at least one pick. He's an aggressive passer, unafraid to take shots downfield. Assuming the Rams are playing from behind, that forces more throws, in adverse conditions (remember, LAR are a dome team and Stafford has played indoors for his entire career, but they're now playing outdoors in the cold). I think the lay vig price of -125 is reasonable on this prop, especially given the Eagles' excellent defense (16 interceptions so far, this season).
I'll also add the player prop on LAR WR Nacua to have fewer than 2.5 rushing yards. He's a serious threat, but his running numbers are unimpressive. Nacua missed a few games, but still produced 11 rushing attempts in just 6 of his 12 games for a grand total of 46 yards (and 5 of those carries were in one game). WR reverses tend to be based on deception and speed, ideal for dome teams on carpet. I doubt we'll see Nacua touch the ball as a runner in a cold weather game in PHI versus a top defense. Naturally, I'm counting on Nacua not to have any carries, but even if he gets the ball as a runner that isn't a guarantee this rushing total gets to 3 or more yards. A fair number of reverses to WRs end up losing yardage. Oh, and the report is now it's supposed to snow at gametime.
Speaking of a 30 percent chance of snow, increasing into the afternoon, that has to help the UNDER and other props fading the LA Rams. These conditions are nearly perfect for a team like Philadelphia, built on a stellar rushing game, a good running QB posing a dual threat, and a very good defense playing at home against an indoor dome team.
Prediction: Philadelphia 26, LA Rams 16
Picks:
Full-Game Total: LAR-PHI UNDER 44
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford to throw an interception--YES (-125)
Player Prop: LAR WR Nacua UNDER 2.5 rushing yards (-120)
--- BALTIMORE at BUFFALO ---
I have no clue who will win this game, but I sure do love the UNDER. O/U 51.5 seems way too high a number based on the weight of this game and what I expect to be more conservative and straightforward game plans. Baltimore and Buffalo have rolled up points against inferior teams this season, but I don't think yardage and points will be so easy when it comes to hitting the season averages. While cold weather isn't necessarily an automatic advantage to the UNDER, the 15-degree gametime forecast won't make throwing the ball easy. Look for the Ravens especially to run the hell out of the ball, which is going to consume lots of clock time. I also like the 1H UNDER since we catch a win on the key number of 24 points.
My player props will concentrate on BAL RB Henry to get plenty of carries and enjoy another big game. I expect Baltimore to game plan a run-heavy offense, especially in these hostile weather conditions. Henry should get 20+ carries, and I'll also bank on him getting enough yardage to go OVER. In fact, I'm wagering Henry will exceed his projection and reach for a higher potential payout. My numbers show O/U 19.5 carries. Down the homestretch, Henry has the following carries in the last four weeks: 26-20-27-24 I presume this number is lower because oddsmakers expect BUF to enjoy offensive success and thus reduce BAL's offensive opportunities (which means fewer carries for Henry). I'll counter that possibility by giving more weight to the weather which will influence more rushing by the Ravens. As to yardage O/U, Henry is listed at 100.5 yards (-105). But he's up to plus money at +143 on the yardage total of 110 (110 is a push). Henry is the type of runner capable of breaking any carry for a big gain and carries defenders on his back downfield. So, the extra 45 percent on the payout is worth asking for an addiction 10 yards by Henry. BTW, his rushing yardage totals in the previous four games shows: 186-138-147-162. Those are monster figures, worthy of reaching a bit higher on a possible payout for a power runner.
Forced to choose, I'll go with Baltimore to win a close game and the total to fall slightly below a very high total. I'm also counting on RB Henry's success to continue as he's certainly on a mission running for extra yardage on every carry.
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Buffalo 23
Picks:
First-Half Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 24.5
Full-Game Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 51.5
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 19.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 110 rushing yards (+143)
FINAL PICKS FOR Divisional Round (For those who just want the picks):
Full-Game Side: Kansas City -8.5
Moneyline: Kansas City (-455)
Player Prop: KC QB Mahomes will throw an interception--NO (-115)
Full-Game Side: Washington +9
Game Prop: Washington to score first and win the game (+650)
Player Prop: DET RB Gibbs OVER 24.5 receiving yards (-120)
Player Prop: WAS QB Daniels OVER 232.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Total: LAR-PHI UNDER 44
Player Prop: LAR QB Stafford to throw an interception--YES (-125)
Player Prop: LAR WR Nacua UNDER 2.5 rushing yards (-120)
First-Half Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 24.5
Full-Game Total: BAL-BUF UNDER 51.5
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 19.5 rushing attempts (-120)
Player Prop: BAL RB Henry OVER 110 rushing yards (+143)
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