2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 78
LOSSES — 63
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — +$331
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 8-3 (+$463)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,331
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 10):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 10 REPORT HERE
Player Prop — BALT QB JACKSON UNDER 48.5 rushing yards…[W]
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / SFO -.5 (-125)...[W]
2-Team Teaser: MINN -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)...[W]
2-Team Teaser: SFO -.5 / LAC -1.5 (-125)...[W]
Full-Game Side: MINNESOTA -6.5 (-115) vs. JAX...[L]
Player Prop: ATL RB ROBINSON OVER 26.5 receiving yard...[W]
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. BUF...[L]
Player Prop: KC QB MAHOMES OVER 234.5 passing yards...[W]
First-Half Side: ARIZONA +.5 (-115) ... [W]
Full-Game Moneyline: ARIZONA +108 ... [W]
Full-Game Side: DALLAS +7.5 vs. PHI .... [L]
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 11)
WASHINGTON VS. PHILADELPHIA (TNF)
NFL fans and bettors should enjoy another outstanding matchup this week as first-place in the NFC East is on the line. Philadelphia is favored by -3.5 points hosting Washington, a spread that seems a little high. I'd make this line PHI -3 (-105). The Eagles at 7-2 SU have won five straight, but look at the list of dogshit teams they've defeated in that stretch -- Dallas, Jacksonville, NY Giants, and Cleveland (okay, perhaps beating 3-5 Cincinnati counts as a quality win). I lean strongly towards Washington plus the number, which has been underestimated by the betting market all season. The Commanders are coming off a last-minute razor-thin loss to Pittsburgh last week, but there's no shame in getting beat late by one of the best teams in the league at the moment. Underdogs have been on fire lately, and though that might not be relevant here, taking points in a big division rivalry game is usually a good starting point in handicapping.
Despite its impressive W-L record, Philadelphia has been one of the worst first-quarter teams in the league this season (and last season, as well), ranking 30th of 32 teams in points scored for 2024. In their first seven games, the Eagles suffered a horrid succession of ineptitude, failing to score a single point in any first quarter. That changed when playing Jacksonville (Week 9), but that was at home against a terrible defense. Last week, the Eagles scored just 7 points in the opening frame, which was only due to Dallas' rusty outmatched backup QB fumbling the ball with a turnover deep in the Eagles red zone on an early drive. Otherwise, Philadelphia would have been blanked again as the offense really struggled the first 20 minutes or so of that game. In other words, this has been a team that starts slow for quite some time. Meanwhile, Washington ranks as the 6th-best 1Q scoring team, thus far. Washington has to be the dog in the 1Q, of course by virtue of getting +3.5 for the full game. That said, the way the Eagles' have been flat offensively early in most games cannot be dismissed. I don't see oddsmakers making any adjustment here. So, I'll take advantage of what appears to be a lack of reaction by the betting public. I'll also note that both defenses have been pretty equal in the 1Q, allowing an average of 3.5 points in the first 15 minutes of games. All of these factors point to the Commanders getting +.5 (a half point) as a smart value bet.
I found an interesting prop at Circa (Las Vegas) in this game. We can wager on which starting QB will have the most rushing yards. Washington's Daniels is a small favorite. Based on stats, these two QBs are about even, but recent results tell a very different story. Since his injury the week prior to the Chicago game, Daniels has rushed for diminishing yardage each week. Perhaps this is an effort to stay healthy. However, given he had only 3 rushing attempts all of last week (for 5 total yards--and that was in a close game), his fewer rushes might be entirely by design. The week before that, Daniels picked up only 35 yards. A recent news report noted the coaching staff doesn't want him running the ball, as the Commanders are now a serious playoff contender and so the QB rushing plays by design are being reduced (if he was a rookie on a losing team, it's not as necessary to play it safe). The Commanders also have three starting offensive lineman listed as questionable. That doesn't necessarily mean it's good for a fade of Daniels' rushing yardage, because an OL that fails to pass protect can create more QB rushing attempts. Nonetheless, this should be noted. Meanwhile, we can always count on Philadelphia QB Hurts to get a fair number of carries each week. Jalen's rushing stats sometimes look more like a RB -- as evidenced by 7-13-10-7-14-8-8-13-13 carries in respective games over the last ten weeks. Hurts' rushing yardage has gone 56-67-37 in his last three games, good for an average 42 YPG for the season. Hurts' figures are likely to be boosted by the short yardage specialist he's become, which sometimes nets 1-5 yards alone on a QB sneak. Let's add Hurts' ridiculously high rushing TD numbers in the last month -- a whopping 8 TDs in the last four games. While those were mostly short-yardage situations, they do show the likelihood that Hurts will run the ball anywhere on the field and especially at the goal line. Naturally, a prop bet of this kind is extremely volatile. One long run probably locks up a win for either QB. However, given Hurts has been running the ball more lately, with superior results, and the fact the Eagles are favored in this game which implies they'll control the ball more, Hurts probably deserves to be the favorite on rushing attempts and yardage. We're getting even money on this prop, which is an added bonus.
Picks:
First Quarter Side: Washington +.5 vs. PHI (-115)
Player Prop: PHI HURTS more rushing yards than WAS DANIELS (even)
TEASER OF THE WEEK:
- Betting teasers has always triggered lively debate among serious NFL handicappers. I've always been an enthusiastic teaser advocate, but that's changed significantly in the last 5 years, or so. Many years ago, teasers were certainly beatable based on the standard vig and proven math (+EV) shared by Stanford Wong in his game-changing book, Sharp Sports Betting. Unfortunately, most sportsbooks have diluted the value of NFL teasers with obscene reductions in value, as the vig has been raised to the point where they are utterly unplayable. Now, I've seen some Las Vegas sportsbooks offer teasers at -140 (two teams/6-points). That's criminal. Meaning, anyone who bets that number should be locked in jail to protect them from harming themselves.
This week, I see two games worthy of teasing at -125. Here are the reasons for each leg of the wagers:
-- Green Bay (teased from -6 down to even/pick): This is more of an anti-Chicago wager than a pro-Green Bay wager. The Bears offense has gone into hibernation the past three games, failing to score a touchdown in more than a month -- last TD was Oct. 13th, four games ago. When an offense can muster only 3 points at home against woeful New England, as happened last week, something's very wrong. Chicago shook up its offensive coaching staff and play-calling this past week, but does anything think that will change things? All I see here is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, headed for a Green Bay iceberg. Much of the blame falls squarely on QB Williams, and rightly so. His numbers have been dreadful lately, showing serious regression as opposing defenses apparently know how to shut him down. Playing the Packers this week, which is always a huge game for both teams, presents a wonderful opportunity to turn things around in Chicago with what would be a shocking upset win. Trouble is, they won't catch the Packers sleeping in this game, and Green Bay comes off a bye which was preceded by a miserable divisional game performance two weeks ago hosting Detroit. Also note that Green Bay has absolutely dominated Chicago over the past several seasons, and there's little to suggest the Bears will be able to match a motivated Green Bay team now embattled in a Wild Card playoff chase (winning the division is probably out of the question now). I expect Green Bay to take care of business this week and the Bears' offensive troubles to continue. Teasing the favorite down to simply winning the game (and no line to worry about) seems like the correct pick here.
-- Houston (teased from -7.5 down to -1.5): Much like the selection above, this is more of a "bet against" wager than a "bet on" pick. Dallas is a hot sticky mess right now, evidenced by one of the most inept home performances over the course of nearly a year as any team in NFL history. The floundering Cowboys have trailed by 20+ points entering the 4th quarter in five straight games {!!!}, which is an NFL record. That's a stunning statistic. Now, they restart the clunky engine with the dead battery of a QB named Cooper Rush, who I (mistakenly) thought would revert to his 2022 self when he filled in and won his first four games as a starter. Rush was horrid, committing several bonehead mistakes. But what was worse was his jaw-dropping inability to throw a pass more than 10 yards. There was another alarming stat that Rush was the first QB in half a century to attempt so many passes, yet end up with only 45 yards passing for the entire game {!!!}. It's easy to bash Rush, as the rest of the team – sans the DL – wasn't much better. We all see the dysfunction in Dallas right now in the NFL’s worst soap opera, and a MNF home game isn't going to produce any Jerry Jones’ prayer-miracles. Meanwhile betting on the Texans is admittedly problematic, as well. This is a badly underachieving team against the spread, led by a QB who makes way too many mistakes. I get nervous betting on any team led by QB Stroud (I could go into a long list of terrible plays and decisions he's made, but I'll keep this short). I'm certainly not laying more than a TD with Houston, especially on the road. So, teasing them down looks like a much more justifiable wager. For all of the Texans’ problems and inconsistencies, this team will almost certainly win the AFC South division. Coming off a shocking loss against Detroit, Houston should have a much easier time here and the Texans won't take the cross-state Cowboys lightly playing on MNF. But it all comes down to Dallas' horrific home performances, and how they're in a hopeless situation with a backup QB. The only path to a Dallas upset is probably defensive dominance and pressuring Stroud into making mistakes (which is certainly possible). The Cowboys' effective defensive front sacked Hurts (PHI) last week five times. So, this is a legit concern. Nonetheless, I'm not going to fear imaginary ghosts under the bed with the mattress protecting my bankroll. I'll go with the better team to beat a team swirling down the drain, they're season essentially over.
Pick:
Two-Team Teaser: GREEN BAY (even) vs. CHI / HOUSTON -1.5 vs. DAL
MINNESOTA VS. TENNESSEE: PLAYER PROP
- Vikings QB Darnold had major difficulties and problems last week, tossing three killer interceptions at the goal line. Minnesota still pulled out the win at JAX (but didn't cover). Playing back-to-back road games versus another outmatched and offensively-challenged opponent again this week, I expect the Vikings will dish out a steady diet of running plays. This is especially true in a game they should be ahead in (MIN is favored by 6). The last four weeks, MIN has been playing either close games or was behind and had to throw more and yet still, their go-to RB A. Jones got 17-21-19-14 carries. That produced 88-64-58-93 yards, respectively over the past month. So, to see this player prop rushing O/U at 59.5 appears to be too low. The Titans defense ranked surprisingly high in the first half of the season, but has steadily slid in quality more recently, allowing 139 rushing YPG in its last three. If Minnesota matches that mark here, Jones is likely to be the main producer of most of the yardage. To date, he's rushed for 653 yards this season on 142 carries (that's 72 YPG on 16 carries average), well over this O/U projection. No other Vikings RB has more than 50 carries or 170+ yards for the season, so the workload in this game on the ground should clearly fall onto the shoulders and legs of Jones. This looks like the kind of game where Minnesota will pound the ball in the second half and Jones could possibly eclipse his season high.
Pick:
Player Prop: MIN RB JONES OVER 59.5 rushing yards
INDIANAPOLIS VS. NY JETS: COLTS +4
- What is it with so many bettors who continue flushing money down the toilet on the NY Jets? Didn't anyone learn anything last week watching the Cardinals trample over this mess of a team that apparently lost its ability to tackle? The Jets were inexplicably favored in that game, and still lost by 25. Their only win since late Sept. was a messy home victory against Houston, a game in which they trailed until the 4th quarter. Listing the Jets' many problems at the moment is pointless, because their woeful 3-7 record makes this all so obvious (well, maybe not--since bettors have moved the line from Jets -3.5 to Jet -4....fuck me silly if I can figure out why). /// The Colts have their own problems, of course. They've stunk the last two weeks as QB Flacco played two horrific games and apparently went colorblind. Still, losing to both the Vikings and Bills isn't really a crime. They will step down significantly in class this week, and also made a change at QB, benching Flacco for Richardson. That could spark the offense (which needs a spark right now). Note that in the five games Richardson played this season, the Colts ran the ball much better, averaging a very impressive 5.2 YPC and 142 rushing YPG. I've also seen a stat that the Jets rank #31 in the NFL in yardage surrendered after making initial contact, which tells us they are a very bad tackling team. I'll take the offense with RB Taylor who is now fully healthy and could enjoy a big day (the betting market agrees--his rushing O/U is 83.5 yards, one of the highest totals of the week). Indy also is a perfect 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records so far this season. /// Maybe the Jets can pull enough scraps to get the win this week, but covering the spread and getting a key number in NFL betting (3 for a win; 4 for a push) is a much more questionable projection. /// Let's add another very underrated aspect of NFL handicapping which is kicking -- as the Jets will be on their FOURTH kicker in FOUR weeks in this matchup (incredibly, after kicking two FGs last week, which were the Jets only points, the free-agent kicker skipped town and signed with the Chiefs, which left the Jets to scramble to find a replacement). These kinds of errors reveal a lot about a team and poor organization, which I'm glad to fade with my money and take the other side, especially since we're getting points. I'll also take Indy in the first half, given the Jets' scoring problems and kicking issues. /// Speaking of kickers and props, IND PK Gay is listed at O/U 6.5 points. The Jets' stadium is a funky place for kickers (notice how many "easy" missed FGs happen here). Nonetheless, I expect Gay will match and/or exceed his recent production. Important Stat: Gay has made at least TWO successful FGs in seven straight games and also has at last one XP in all nine Colts games this season. So, he's posted 7+ points in SEVEN STRAIGHT GAMES. Now, the O/U is just 6.5 (-110)? What's the prop market saying this week -- that the Jets defense is good? Fuck that. Give me Gay to nail a couple of FGs and an XP or two. The fact Richardson is starting at QB probably helps this prop, as he's been less reliable in the red zone. Note: Wind/rain is not expected to be a factor.
Pick:
Player Prop: INDY PK GAY OVER 6.5 points (-110)
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 vs. NYJ (-105)
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. NYJ
BEST OF THE REST: OTHER WAGERS
Patriots vs. Rams
- The Rams are wildly inconsistent and come off a disappointing game where they couldn't get into the end zone. I expect that to carry over into this road game, versus the Patriots off a big upset win last week at Chicago. There's enough talent on the Patriots, who have won 2 of their lat 3 games (and the loss by was 3) to keep this close for the full game, and certainly in the first half.
First-Half Side: New England +3 vs. LA Rams
Chargers vs. Bengals
- This line looks too low. Oddsmakers and the betting public continue to overestimate the strength of the Bengals, who are floundering at 4-6 and nearing playoff elimination with a few more losses. It seems that a losing team with a horrible defense should be getting perhaps +3 or more in a road game versus a 6-3 opponent, with the stiffest defense in points allowed in the NFL this season, at just 13 PPG. The Chargers continue to look better each week, while Cincinnati is now forced to try and outscore opponents as their defense ranks 29th and can't seem to stop anybody. Im taking the team with much better record, at home, with a far better defense, and an offense that isn't quite as explosive as Cincy's, but probably enjoys an edge in ball control.
Full-Game Side: LA Chargers -1.5 vs. Cincinnati
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):
First Quarter Side: Washington +.5 vs. PHI (-115) … [W]
Player Prop: PHI HURTS more rushing yards than WAS DANIELS … [W]
Two-Team Teaser: GREEN BAY (even) vs. CHI / HOUSTON -1.5 vs. DAL
Player Prop: MIN RB JONES OVER 59.5 rushing yards
Player Prop: INDY PK GAY OVER 6.5 points (-110)
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 vs. NYJ (-105)
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. NYJ
First-Half Side: NEW ENGLAND +3 vs. LAR
Full-Game Side: LA CHARGERS -1.5 vs. CIN
Sign up at www.Betcoin.ag today with the promo code NOLAN and get a 100% Bonus on your first deposit (Contact support by chat, ticket or email to claim)
Comments