2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 104
LOSSES — 96
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$790
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-8 (-$205)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,210
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
Notes: This has been a brutally tough football season, with lots of disappointments. Many public handicappers will conveniently point to all the bad beats they suffered, and I’ve had more than my share. However, after 200 wagers (and counting), we are way past the phase where wins/losses can be explained by variance. Fact is, my results are unsatisfactory. I have to take responsibility for that. No one wants to read about excuses. My pledge here is to continue working hard and handicapping games. Perhaps when the season ends, I’ll use some extra time to conduct a post-mortem and see what mistakes were made, and then try and correct them. However, for the final four weeks of the regular season, followed by the playoffs, I’ll keep on looking for betting opportunities and sharing them with readers. Thanks to the good people at Betcoin.ag for providing this public platform and opportunity.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 15):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 15 REPORT HERE
First-Half Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +1.5 (-110)…{W}
Full-Game Side — LAR vs. SFO: RAMS +3 (-120)…{W}
BAL vs. NYG: Ravens RB Henry UNDER 102.5 rushing yards (-115)…{W}
BAL vs. NYG: Giants Kicker Gano OVER 4.5 points…{L}
NYJ vs. JAX: First-Half: Jaguars +2.5…{W}
NYJ vs. JAX: Full Game: Jaguars +3.5 (-120)…{L}
KC vs. CLE: Team Total Browns UNDER 20.5 (-120)…{W}
PIT vs. PHI: 1st Qtr. Steelers +.5 (half point) {-120)…{L}
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers +5.5…{L}
PIT vs. PHI: Steelers Kicker Boswell OVER 6.5 points…{W}
DAL vs. CAR: Cowboys Kicker Aubrey UNDER 7.5 points (-120)…{L}
NWE vs. ARZ: Moneyline Cardinals (-260)…{W}
ATL vs. LVR: 1st Half Raiders +3 (-115)…{L}
ATL vs. LVR: Raiders Kicker Carlson OVER 6.5 points…{L}
Special Prop: Highest Scoring Team Week 15 — Panthers (+3900)…{L}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 16)
NEW–MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES FUTURES BET:
- I believe the Philadelphia Eagles should be favored to win the NFC Championship. Given this week's unique circumstances pertaining to each contending team, sports bettors now have a rare value-based wagering enticement on what I consider to be the best NFL futures wager on the board.
Huge disclaimer–this is relevant as of pre-Week 16. This situation could change based on upcoming results.
- The Detroit Lions currently hold the top spot as the odds-on favorite to reach and ultimately win this year's Super Bowl.
[Odds courtesy of Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas]
Detroit +400
Buffalo +440
Philadelphia +460
Kansas City +500
Baltimore +810
A persuasive argument can be made for any of the five current favorites – including the Lions, Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and/or Ravens. Moreover, the secondary tier of contending teams is also a compelling group – which includes the Packers, Vikings, Steelers, and Rams. Anyone who’s followed the NFL this season understands that any one of these teams could win the Super Bowl with the right path, strong performances, and a few breaks along the way. Hence, picking one team to emerge at the top of the heap becomes a tall task fraught with risk.
The NFC has several notable distinctions at the moment. First and foremost, betting markets have been slow to react to changing conditions. Odds based on outdated perceptions are ripe with opportunity.
A major factor in winning the conference championship is getting a first-round bye in the playoffs. Two teams have the first-round off in the playoffs -- which are the top seeds from each conference. Those two teams are the only teams out of the combined playoff field of 14 which will have a week off. Not only do these top seeds avoid risking an upset loss in the Wild Card round, they also have an extra week to get healthier and game plan for the Divisional round. They're also awarded with home field advantage for each playoff game. This is a powerful edge. Fact: Since 1990, 50 percent of all Super Bowl teams (32 of 64) have been top seeds.
Three NFC teams have a realistic chance at earning the top seed – including Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. All three teams are tied with identical 12-2 records. However, the Lions enjoy the edge because of tiebreakers (conference wins and losses during the regular season). But should Detroit really be the favorite right now?
With three weeks still to play, take a look at the schedule of opponents for these three teams:
Detroit:
- at Chicago
- at San Francisco
- home vs. Minnesota
Philadelphia:
- at Washington
- home vs. Dallas
- home vs. NY Giants
Minnesota:
- at Seattle
- home vs. Green Bay
- at Detroit
Note how Philadelphia enjoys several advantages going forward. First, they play two home games, while their rivals must play two road games. Second, Detroit and Minnesota will face each other in the final week, which eliminates the loser of that game. Third, Philadelphia enjoys a far easier schedule. Washington could pose trouble this coming weekend, but the final two weeks should be easy victories. It’s reasonable to expect the Eagles will win all three games. If Philadelphia wins three games and the Lions lose a game, the Eagles earn the top seed. As for Minnesota, that’s a murderously difficult schedule ahead.
If Philadelphia earns the NFC’s top seed, they’ll be very difficult to beat in the playoffs. Here are several reasons why the Eagles deserve to be favored:
The Eagles are riding the NFL’s longest win streak at the moment, which is currently at 10 games. If they run the table the next three weeks (they’ll be favored in all three games), Philadelphia enters the playoffs on the 13-game winning streak.
The Eagles are 6-1 straight up at home this season, which is expected to be 8-1 at season’s end (hosting home games vs. the Cowboys and Giants, which will be big underdogs). Beating the Eagles in Philadelphia (in frigid January) won’t be easy.
The Eagles may be the healthiest of any of the top-five betting favorites in either conference. Contrast this fact with Detroit’s injury situation right now, which is dire (more on this point to come). Since the Lions are the primary threat in the NFC as favorites to win the conference, the contrast in injuries to both of these teams cannot be overstated.
The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in rushing offense (yards per game). The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in total defense (yards allowed per game). A great rushing attack and a great defense are the two most important factors in winning playoff games. A combination of these two factors is lethal.
The Eagles are a proven winner capable of playing well outdoors in the cold. Contrast this fact with the two primary threats to the Eagles in the NFC – Detroit and Minnesota – which are indoor (dome) teams. Does anyone think the Lions or Vikings would be favored to win in Philadelphia in late January? Note: Green Bay could be a problem for the Eagles, assuming they reach the NFC Championship game–the Packers are an outdoor team built for the cold. However, the Packers would have to win two playoff games to get there, including perhaps upsetting the Lions in Detroit.
Many bettors (and fans) may have forgotten that Philadelphia won the NFC Championship just two seasons ago, destroying San Francisco by 24 points at home. Many of the Eagles' players have been in this pressure spot before, whereas few players from the other teams in the NFC have ever won a conference championship game. Experience advantage to Philadelphia.
Now, here are the current odds:
Current Odds of Philadelphia Eagles Winning the NFC Championship:
MGM +210
William Hill +200
Westgate +195
Circa +190
Stations +180
Let’s agree the Lions are the major threat to the Eagles as the prospective NFC favorite. Now, let’s examine their status as of pre-Week 16:
In their last three games, the Lions have failed to cover a pointspread. All were home games, where they should have rolled. They were fortunate to steal a 3-point win hosting Chicago on Thanksgiving Day (a late Chicago coaching blunder cost the Bears the massive upset). They beat the rival Packers at home on a late field goal. And the Lions got demolished by Buffalo last week. This is not the look of a betting favorite to win the NFC.
The Lions defense has surrendered a whopping 99 points in their last three games. That mark is the worst in the NFL. Detroit’s defense has always been suspect, as they tend to win games by outscoring opponents. Last week’s 48-42 loss to Buffalo showed that might not be possible when facing strong opponents.
The Lions are utterly decimated with injuries right now:
The Lions' injured reserve list was already overloaded with defenders — star defensive end Aiden Hutchinson (broken leg), defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (knee), linebacker Malcom Rodriguez (torn ACL), cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (hamstring), safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (undisclosed), linebacker Alex Anzalone (forearm), linebacker Derrick Barnes (knee), linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin (neck), defensive end Marcus Davenport (triceps), defensive tackle David Bada (Achilles), defensive end John Cominsky (knee) and defensive end Nate Lynn (shoulder). That’s a dozen, plus three more during the (Buffalo Bills loss).
Read More: Lions' injuries are becoming recurring nightmare in otherwise dream season
Speaking of injuries, Detroit just lost one of its best offensive players for the season. RB David Montgomery, one half of the great Lions rushing backfield is done for the year.
Finally, as painful as it is to write this, we can’t trust Lions head coach Dan Campbell. He’s done an amazing job turning around the Lions. His team, and game decisions, are fun to watch. However, he’s made some monumental blunders from the sideline. Consider last week’s moronic onside kick with nearly 9 minutes left in the game, and Detroit trailing by 10 points. Onside kicks are nearly impossible to pull off, especially with this season’s rule changes. Campbell’s decision to attempt an onside kick in what was still a winnable game reveals his risky coaching to be a double-edged sword. I’ll fade that uncertainty in the playoffs versus a good team like the Eagles.
Despite all these problems, and the very realistic prospect that the Detroit Lions could end up as the #2 seed, and would then play an extra game – and assuming they win both games in the first two rounds (likely facing the Packers again), and then as an indoors dome team, might have to play a conference championship game outdoors in freezing weather, with so many injuries, without it’s best running back, makes this an ideal situation to fade.
Note that “fading” a bet, means taking the opposite side (or the other team).
Summation:
The Philadelphia Eagles are the most well-rounded team in the NFC at the moment, currently riding a 10-game winning streak. They are also the healthiest team now entering the late- and post-season.
The Eagles enjoy the clearest path to the top seed in the NFC. Becoming the #1 seed gives them enormous advantages versus other teams. Philadelphia is very likely to be favored by more than a FG in every game they play until they (potentially) reach the Super Bowl.
The Eagles’ obvious advantages are based on their style of play, rooted in the NFL’s #1 rushing offense (Saquon Barkley appears to be in a mission) combined with #1 ranked defense. History shows this to be a winning formula for winning championships.
All other playoff teams have far more obstacles than the Eagles to winning the conference championship. Assuming Philadelphia gets the top seed, all they must do is win two games. All other opponents face a much tougher path.
Finally, we are getting a great price…..at +210. That’s a terrific number. Getting back more than double our money on all of the above is an exceptional value. And–value is what we should be seeking when betting on any sport, especially the NFL where the margins are slim.
NFL SATURDAY: HOUSTON VS. KANSAS CITY
- What exactly are these two teams playing for? Sure, Kansas City wants to lock up the AFC's top seed. But they're two games up on Buffalo, with only three games to play. The Chiefs seem destined for a playoff bye, assuming they can win 2 of their last 3. If the Bills lose just once, Kansas City would need only one victory. I don't see much urgency here. Much the same can be said for Houston, which has all but locked up the dismal AFC South division title. It almost doesn't matter how the Texans finish, since division winners automatically get to host a playoff game. Other than confidence and pride, there's not much on the line here, despite two first-place teams meeting on Saturday. I expect this plays in a cover by the underdog. Houston often stumbles its way through games, and QB CJ Stroud seems to have regressed from last season. However, the Chiefs have been a money burner at home this season. They're 0-4 ATS in their last four game at Arrowhead. The lines now reflect Kansas City's lackluster efforts, figuring they aren't as motivated until the playoffs come. Despite this, Kansas City at 11-1 and rolling along would appear to have little to no urgency here. I wish Houston has more to play for, in which case they might be a much stronger pick. Nonetheless, there's anough incentive to take the dog getting +3.5, especially with two factors that could hurt the Chiefs this week: (1) QB P. Mahomes may not be at full strength. The last thing the Chiefs should be doing at this stage of the season is risking an injury to their best player, especially in a relatively meaningless game. I expect backup QB C. Wentz to get some snaps and wouldn't be surprised if he sees more action than Mahomes in this game. (2) Kansas City must play again on Christmas Day, hosting Pittsburgh. Some Chiefs players have been outspoken about their unhappiness with this scheduling oddity--Wed NFL games are rare. This could also play into Kansas City wanting to play it safe and avoid injuries. This leads to me make two player prop wagers -- one on HOU RB J. Mixon to go OVER 60.5 rushing yards. The other is an OVER wager on HOU PK K. Fairbairn to exceed 6.5 points. Mixon has rushed for 900+ yards in 11 games (three were missed due to injury). He's exceeded 100+ yards in 7 of those 11 starts. Mixon is also listed at 17.5 carries, and assuming he's fed the ball that number, he should be able to hit the 61+ mark, especially since Kansas City's run defense has looked very mediocre lately. Meanwhile, Fairbairn is enjoying a spectacular season (130 points scored)......listen to this stat.....Fairbiarn has hit 7+ points in TEN STRAIGHT GAMES, and 12 of 14 this season. Houston struggles in the Red Zone, so he's a really good bet to hit the OVER mark this week, as well.
Picks:
Player Prop: HOU RB Mixon OVER 60.5 rushing yards
Player Prop: HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 6.5 points scored (-130)
Full Game Side: TEXANS +3.5
NFL SATURDAY: PITTSBURGH VS. BALTIMORE
- This is a horrible scheduling spot for Pittsburgh, which could get blown out in a rivalry game that's typically been decided by a FG or less almost every time they meet. I wanted to catch the Ravens early at -6, but then the number moved to -7. It's even as high as -7.5 in some places. I missed the boat by a mile. That leaves us with a strong prop play, however. Once again, I'm relying on good FG kickers. With Boswell (PIT) and Tucker (BAL), we get two of the best in the game -- as Boswell leads the NFL in scoring this season and Tucker is a sure Hall-of-Famer, even though he's suffering through his worst season as a pro. What's tempting here is the OVER on the longest FG of the game (by either team) at 46.5 yards. Throughout their careers, both of this kickers have nailed 50+ yarders consistently. Coaches will have no hesitation trotting out either Boswell or Tucker in a game like this one, where nearly anything within 59 yards to so is likely to trigger an attempt. Boswell has made 11 50+ yarders this season. Tucker, even with 8 misses this season (a career high), has still made 4 from 50+. Combined, that 15 50-plus yarders between them through 15 weeks. Remember, we only need a 47 yarder or longer to cash here, so there's plenty of cushion for one of these kickers to deliver a winning kick for us and hit this OVER.
Pick:
Player Prop: PIT/BAL OVER 46.5 yards -- longest successful field goal (-112)
THE BATTLE OF OHIO IS THE PERFECT TEASER
- Cincinnati has been unstoppable on offense lately, scoring 37-27-38-27-34-41 respectively since Nov. 1. So, I'm not going to be dissuaded by the Bengals laying a big number, now at -8. Cincy has covered in six straight games vs. teams with losing records, so they take care of business when they should against outmatched foes. Forget the "rivalry" here which might apply to most of the games in this series, since Cincy still has faint hopes of a playoff spot and must run the table the rest of the way. We've seen no decline in offensive productivity or focus. Moreover, the Bengals weakness is their defense. But Cleveland lacks the firepower to pose much of a challenge, evidenced by scoring 14 points or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. The Browns have been dreadful ATS this season, just 4-10 against the number and have covered the number just once in their past six games. The superior, more motivated team should roll here. I'll also tease the Bengals down to -2 and combine them with the Ravens, which is reduced to -1.
Picks:
Full Game Side: BENGALS -8
Two-Team Teaser: BENGALS -2 / RAVENS -1 (-125)
NOTE TO COMMANDERS: THROW THE BALL!
- When betting QB props, it's important to think in terms of how the late part of the game is most likely to play out. Many O/U props are won or lost based on which team is playing catch up, and which team wants to burn the clock and escape with a win. Based on the spread (Eagles -3.5) it's reasonable to expect Washington to be trailing. That probably means more passing by the Commanders than they would like. Note the O/U on passing attempts for QB J. Daniels is 30.5. The prospective rookie-of-the-year candidate has enjoyed a strong debut season and the Commanders’ coaching staff isn't afraid of putting the game on his shoulders, or letting him throw. Daniels has completed exactly 25 passes in each of the past three games, which shows steady results. He's also attempted 30 or more passes in four straight games, and two of those were easy wins where Daniels didn't need to throw much in the 4Q. I expect him to follow a similar script here, but also be forced to air it out more, especially in a big game that could be high scoring. It's very possible the Eagles roll up some points, which might force Daniels and the offense to far exceed this O/U on pass attempts. Weather is not expected to be a factor.
Pick:
Player Prop: QB DANIELS OVER 30.5 pass attempts
NOTE TO FALCONS AND GIANTS: DON'T THROW THE BALL!
- This is such an obvious UNDER bet that it scares me. I don't know why the O/U isn't in the high 30s. Both teams will start QBs with no NFL highlights on their resume, likely resulting in lots of rushing attempts that will keep the clock moving. Add the fact that both teams have had massive problems scoring points the last five games -- Giants averaging 13 PPG since Week 11 and Falcons just 15 PPG in that same span. Both teams are 5-9 to the UNDER this season, for a combined 10-18 to the low side. Keep in mind those season-long numbers were with two veteran QBs (Jones and Cousins)....who have now been replaced by basically one guy hired off Craig's List and the other who is making his first NFL start and has 5 passing attempts and 38 yards for his NFL career to date. Both teams won't be asking the QBs to do much. I'm still baffled that the total is this high and wonder why anyone would wager on an OVER based on the overwhelming data that supports the UNDER in this matchup. I'll add one more bet which is Atlanta's Team Total to fall UNDER 26.5. It shouldn't take that many points to win this game, and if the Falcons run the ball heavily (and they should exactly with one of the better RBs in the league in B. Robinson) that will move the game along more quickly. The Falcons lack big play capability at the moment. Meanwhile, the Giants are easily the worst offense in the NFL. Catching the key “43” just in case something goes wrong makes this number even stronger.
Picks:
Full-Game Total: ATL-NYG UNDER 43
Team Total: FALCONS UNDER 26.5
BEST OF THE REST (ADDED PICKS):
BUCCANEERS -3.5 [SNF]
- Now that the line has moved down from -4 to -3.5, I believe the Bucs are playable, even as road favorites. Tampa Bay has won four straight, including a dominant performance last week in which they torched the Chargers for 40 points. Now on the brink of winning the NFC South, I expect the Bucs will handle the Cowboys who have been a dreadful home team for most of the season. In fact, Dallas is 1-6 ATS at home. Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS on the road this season and 2-1 ATS as a road favorite. The Bucs are currently playing their best football of the season. Laying -3.5 is a reasonable number of cover, especially the way this offense has been scoring points. I'll also add a wager on the Bucs' team total, which is posted at 26.5 for this game. Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL (allowing 27 PPG) this year. Now, they will be wihtout their best corner (Diggs out of the season). Mayfield and the Bucs have scored 26+ in four straight.
Picks:
Full-Game Side: BUCCANEERS -3.5
Team Total: BUCCANEERS OVER 26.5 points
PLAYER PROP: RATTLER TO (NOT) ROLL [MNF]
- Green Bay should blow New Orleans out of Lambeau Field on Monday night. The Packers are hitting on all cylinders right now, and face a bad team that's limping into the end of the season. Spencer Rattler was just announced as the Saints starter. I can't imagine a worse situation for him to be in, QBing the woeful Saints, who will be without their best offensive player (Kamara is out for the season). So, I was shocked to see Rattler's O/U on passing yards listed at 224.5. That seems very high for a young QB without proven targets, especially playing outdoors in the cold (forcast: snow is possible). Rattler has played four games, exceeding thus yardage total just once at 243 -- and that was against a (then) decimated Bucs' secondary and he needed 40 attempts to get there. Otherwise, Rattlerdidn't get to within 60 yards of this projection. Look for RB Jacobs to help control the clock and the Packers to dominate time of possession. Even though bad teams which are big underdogs can be excellent bets to get cheap "trash" yardage late in game, I don't foresee enough production from the Saints in this hostile environment to break the O/U, which is close to average of a regular QB in an NFL game.
Pick:
Player Prop: RATTLER UNDER 224.5 passing yards
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 16 (For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop: HOU RB Mixon OVER 60.5 rushing yards
Player Prop: HOU PK Fairbairn OVER 6.5 points scored (-130)
Full-Game Side: TEXANS +3.5
Player Prop: PIT/BAL OVER 46.5 yards -- longest successful field goal (-112)
Full Game Side: BENGALS -8
Two-Team Teaser: BENGALS -2 / RAVENS -1 (-125)
Player Prop: QB DANIELS OVER 30.5 pass attempts
Full-Game Total: ATL-NYG UNDER 43
Team Total: FALCONS UNDER 26.5 points
Full-Game Side: BUCCANEERS -3.5
Team Total: BUCCANEERS OVER 26.5 points
Player Prop: RATTLER UNDER 224.5 passing yards
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