2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 85
LOSSES — 65
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — +$811
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 7-2 (+$480)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,811
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 11):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 11 REPORT HERE
First Quarter Side: Washington +.5 vs. PHI (-115) … [W]
Player Prop: PHI HURTS more rushing yards than WAS DANIELS … [W]
Two-Team Teaser: GREEN BAY (even) / HOUSTON -1.5 … [W]
Player Prop: MIN RB JONES OVER 59.5 rushing yards … [L]
Player Prop: INDY PK GAY OVER 6.5 points (-110) … [W]
First-Half Side: INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 vs. NYJ (-105) … [W]
Full-Game Side: INDIANAPOLIS +4 vs. NYJ … [W]
First-Half Side: NEW ENGLAND +3 vs. LAR … [L]
Full-Game Side: LA CHARGERS -1.5 vs. CIN ... [W]
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 12)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: PITTSBURGH VS. CLEVELAND – TWO PLAYER PROPS
Throughout his career, Jameis Winston interception props have been like taking candy away from a baby. However, in his defense, Winston didn't throw any picks in 2 of his 3 starts this season (he did throw 3 picks against the Chargers, two weeks ago). This matchup appears to have all the preconditions for one –or more– Winston interceptions. Note that this player prop is sometimes listed at “O/U .5” on the interception count. I'm betting OVER .5 or "yes" on the proposition.
Here are the reasons: First, the weather for Thursday night's game in Cleveland should be miserable. That is, miserably wonderful–for us. High 30s in temperature and chance of rain at 80 percent at kickoff. It's important this isn't a snow forecast–but rain. That makes for a slippery ball. The cold won't help Winston either, who after spending his career in warm-weather Tampa and New Orleans will play his first home game in the cold winter mix. That can’t be a positive for a QB who has always struggled with accuracy. Indeed, Winston has been an interception machine for his entire NFL career, often making high-risk throws that sometimes produces big numbers, but also creates turnovers. The Browns have nothing to play for at this point except pride. Nearing what's likely his final shot as a starting QB, look for Winston to air it out this week despite the adverse conditions. Note that Winston had 40+ passing attempts in each of his last three games, more than any player in the league in that recent span. If he throws 40 passes in this game, the Browns are likely to lose, and he'll have at least one picked off.
Pittsburgh is another tough defense that applies pressure. By some metrics, the Steelers are the highest pressure unit in the NFL. Last time Winston played a defense at this level, he threw three interceptions (in the Chargers game). The Browns OL is also a mess, losing two starters from last week. That won't help Winston’s pass protection, and is likely to allow the aggressive Pittsburgh DL lots of opportunities to get to the QB, leading to possible mistakes and interceptions. Since Cleveland is likely to be playing from behind at some point, that also increases the chances of more passing, greater risks, and likely turnovers.
Interceptions are difficult to predict and have a high rate of variance (tipped balls, hail mary passes, etc. are often impossible to forecast). That said, Pittsburgh is one of the league's best defense at forcing interceptions (ranking #5 in the league).
Given the gloomy weather and slippery conditions, a really bad OL, a good DL at applying pressure, a mistake-prone QB who is among the leaders in pass attempts, and Winston's own notoriety for throwing lots of interceptions, the 2:1 lay price here is justified. A typical lay price is somewhere around -135 on the yes prop, and with all the added intangibles, that's still worth the high vig. In fact, I expect Winston to toss at least a couple of balls to the black and gold jerseys.One other player prop I like is Browns RB Nick Chubb to go UNDER on his rushing yardage total. I've seen this listed at 51.5 at a few sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. I found the best number at 54.5 at the Westgate. That 3 extra yards could be huge. I'd bet it at 51.5, but I really like this bet much more at 54.5. Shop around if you can.
Chubb is living off his reputation as one of the best RBs in the NFL, but he hasn't done shit for the Browns this season. Perhaps that's not entirely his fault, given he was injured and missed half the season. Add the fact the Browns have one of the worst offensive lines and football and lowest YPG averages (just 88 yards per game as a team) and it's hard to see where the yards will come from this week. Oh, and Pittsburgh's stout defense allows just 90 YPG, ranking #4 among all NFL teams, and these low projections are consistent with Chubb (or any other RB) struggling again.
As for Chubb's personal stats, he's not eclipsed 54.5 yards in any of his four starts this season. Since his return from injury, Chubb's yardage on the ground has been 50-39-52. With one other partial game played, that totals just 163 rushing yards on 53 carries this season. Moreover, if QB Winston is throwing 40+ passes per game (he's passed for 41-44-46 attempts in his three starts–why would he not throw roughly the same number this week?) that's fewer opportunities Chubb will have to grind out yardage on the ground. Chubb is gaining a pitiful 3.1 YPC so far this season, and facing a solid Steelers defense that is effective at stopping the run, it seems doubtful the Browns will suddenly go run-heavy given his lack of production. I also doubt if the wintery conditions will help Chubb's yardage tally in this game.
Picks:
Player Prop: PIT-CLE -- CLE QB WINSTON to throw an interception (yes at -200)
Player Prop: PIT-CLE -- CLE RB CHUBB under 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
DENVER VS. LAS VEGAS: PLAYER PROP
When assessing player props, it's essential to examine trajectory. Which direction is the player moving in? Up or down? This is especially true for young QBs. Given the season-long trajectory, so far, I'm betting that Denver QB Bo Nix will go OVER 214.5 passing yards in this week's matchup.
Consider his recent form. The Broncos' rookie quarterback is coming off his best game as a pro -- 85 pct. of passes completed, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and 307 yards. In fact, Nix has surpassed the 214.5 yardage mark in four straight games. Even though the Broncos have gone just 2-2 SU the last month, Nix is clearly making progress. Also keep in mind those two losses were against the top two teams in the AFC -- vs. BUF and KC. No shame in those road defeats (and the Broncos should have won at KC, except for the blocked FG).The Broncos continue opening up the offensive playbook for Nix, and it's paying dividends for the team. Coach Sean Payton, known for crafting creative passing attacks from his days with the Saints is managing his progress well, and now we may see the full arsenal of weapons versus a badly struggling opponent. Stats show that Nix is playing as well as any starter at the moment, reflected by a 9-1 TD to INT ratio.
The Raiders defense has surrendered 267 YPG average in its last three games, and this week CBs Jack Jones (back), Nate Hobbs (ankle) and Jakorian Bennett (shoulder) were listed on the IR. This is a very bad sign for the Raiders' defense heading into a divisional matchup against an improving Denver offense. Jones and Bennett were both injured in the Week 11 loss to Miami, while Hobbs didn't play last weekend after getting injured the previous game. Even if all three of their CBs are cleared to play, Nix has moved the ball well lately, and faces the softest defense since Carolina when he put up 284 and 3 TDs in the air that week.
This number is likely weighed down because Nix started this season (and his career) slowly. But with each passing week, we're seeing improvement and with Denver now in playoff contention, we'll likely see this level of performance continue -- especially versus a bad team, and the Raiders are a bad team right now.
My main concern is -- the Broncos build a lead and then stop throwing the ball late in the game, as they did in a road blowout of New Orleans earlier in the season. Nix is much more likely to throw more passes in a game where Denver is behind or it's an uncertain outcome.
Pick:
Player Prop: DEN vs. LVR -- DEN QB NIX over 214.5 passing yards
TWO-TEAM, 5-POINT TEASER PICK:
Note this is a rare two-team 5-point teaser available at Circa Las Vegas. Many 6-point teasers have become unplayable because of the high vig (sometimes as high as -140). However, some sportsbooks now offer 5-point teasers with a lower vig price. The objective remains the same, which is to pick up wins across key numbers. I've accomplished that with these two legs of the teaser. Here's the picks with an explanation:
Washington (teased from -10 down to -5) -- Here's a "get right" game for Wasington which has lost two straight, comes off extra rest, is back at home, and playing versus one of the worst teams in the NFL. The line is WAS -10 (up to -10.5 in some places). The goal here is to tease this down to a one score gap, especially under the key numbers of 6 and 7. The Commanders should rebound here with a win, hopefully beyond a touchdown. As for Dallas, their demise needs no explanation. Losses by 24...28...6...6...38 in their last five games makes for a confident "bet against" projection, especially with backup QB Rush playing his first road game this week. Dallas could actually be a better team on the road (their home results have been all-time historically bad), which actually is a minor concern. However, with Washington's superior talent and coaching and coming off a couple of one-score losses to two of the best teams in the NFL (PIT and PHL), I'll wager on the likelihood the Commanders win by 6+ in this contest.Houston (teased from -8 down to -2) -- initially, I was pondering a bet against Houston, which finally got a blowout win last week (MNF at DAL). With the short prep time, laying more than a TD seems like a shaky prospect, especially given how many close games the Texans have played through 11 weeks. Nonetheless, Houston might be primed for a strong close to a division-winning season. The Texans should be able to handle the inferior Titans this week, who are dreadful in every way. Consider Tennessee is just 1-9 ATS this season, and 0-5 ATS versus teams with winning records. Their last four road games were all double-digit defeats. Tennessee has also scored 20 points or fewer in 7 consecutive games, which isn't going to be enough to win many weeks. The Titans' defense, admittedly not that bad statistically and once praised for being "underrated" is allowing 26 PPG. Even if the Texans don't perform up to market expectations and fail to cover the high spread at -8.5 they should be able to edge out a win by more than a FG (our adjusted teaser line is -2.5). Finally, with QB bust W. Levin still inexplicably making the start for Tennessee, there's always a chance for a killer mistake on every play (no QB has destroyed his team with more mistakes this season than Levin).
Pick:
Two-Team 5-Point Teaser -- HOU -2.5 vs. TEN / WAS -5 vs. DAL
MINNESOTA VS. CHICAGO
- The Bears host another NFC North division home game the week after a heartbreaking loss to the Packers. Even with the 20-19 defeat, which marks a fourth-straight defeat, we saw a much better Bears' team last week. I expect that carries over here against another rival, which could be in a letdown fatigue spot. Certainly getting +3.5 is enticing, especially given the Bears defensive potential which is capable of shutting down most offenses when they play at their peak. All that said, the biggest reason I'm taking the division home dog is because it's an ideal fade situation against a team playing their third straight road game. Minnesota has played back-to-back creampuffs (JAX and TEN) and even though Chicago is a 4-6 team, this is a step up in class for the Vikings. Minnesota hasn't looked quite as good as early in the season, as each of the last five games were sloppy at times. In what should be a close game with Chicago playing to keep their playoff hopes alive, I'll back them to keep this one within a field goal.
Pick:
Full-Game Side: CHI +3.5 vs. MIN (-120)
DETROIT VS. INDIANAPOLIS -- PLAYER PROP
- Surprising Fact: Even though they're riding an 8-game win streak, Detroit ranks as the NFL's worst pass defense when it comes to allowing yardage gained by opposing WRs. Part of the reason is opposing teams have often been playing from behind and are forced to throw the ball. Hence, WRs get their yardage. We can expect much the same this week (even though I like the Colts plus the points at +7.5). In an indoor game in the rubber grass, this matchup has all the conditions for a high-scoring shootout, and that means the Colts' receivers should get plenty of catches and yardage. WR Josh Downs is listed at just 54.5 receiving yards, which could be justifiable given the Colts have multiple offensive weapons which spreads out the numbers among skill players. Yet, Downs has racked up 60+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight games. That’s a powerful stat, impossible to ignore. The wideout is also coming off an 84-yard game on the road versus the Jets, and now faces arguably a more susceptible Lions’ defense that allows yardage, especially during what’s called trash time. Downs’ own stats are weighed down by some bad QB play throughout the Colts’ inconsistent season, but Indy’s passing game may be improving with QB Richardson no longer looking over his shoulder at Flacco ready to come off the bench after being (re) named the starter. There’s also been a change in the playbook, based on last week’s win. Richardson looks far more comfortable making 10-15 yard throws, and that's likely how Downs will eclipse this number. His O/U on catches is 4.5, which seems about right. However, inside the dome and with breakaway skill, it’s also certainly possible Downs gets targeted for a long pass, or extended catch after the run, which will surpass the 54.5 O/U. If Indy is playing from behind, that only increases the chances of extra receiving yardage. There are multiple ways of winning this prop bet, and I think each of them is plausible, leading to compelling reasons to bet this number to sail OVER.
Pick:
Player Prop: DET vs. IND -- IND WR DOWNS over 54.5 receiving yards
KANSAS CITY VS. CAROLINA -- FIRST-QUARTER BET
- Since the full-game line is Kansas City -11, most bettors are expecting a blowout. Perhaps that will happen and the Chiefs will bounce back with a big game following their first loss of the season in Week 11 at Buffalo. However, what many bettors may have missed is Kansas City's tendency for slow starts in all of its games, even the wins. Consider the Chiefs' lowly ranking in first-quarter scoring which is 27th in the NFL this season, and that's despite a 9-1 SU record! Incredibly, the Chiefs average just 2.5 points in the first quarter per game. Even sub-par Carolina, their opponent in this game, ranks higher (#21 at 3.5 PPG). Kansas City has scored just 3 points in the opening frame of its last three games–combined. The last time KC scored a TD in the 1Q was four weeks ago. Since they're playing a second-straight road game, I'm not seeing the evidence that the Chiefs should be expected to come out on fire in Week 12. Let's also add Carolina's unexpected resurgence. The Panthers are playing better now than at any time in the last two seasons, currently riding a rare 2-game winning streak and well-rested off a bye week. Carolina has a real shot here to make a bold statement versus the Super Bowl champs and coming out of the locker room should be on a high that makes them an attractive team to back. The fact we are GETTING +3 on the first-quarter spread with the live underdog makes this an even stronger bet. Finally, let's add one intangible which is kicking. KC had to sign a new placekicker due to Butker's injury. In the event an early Chiefs drive stalls at midfield, they could have been counted on to attempt long FGs with Butker as one of the game's best 50-yard-plus specialists. Such circumstances this week might instead lead to a decision to punt, given the new kicker is unproven. It's a small data factoid, but since betting often relies on margins, I'll take every advantage I can get. Obviously, first-quarter wagering is very volatile (whoever receives the opening KO automatically gets perhaps one extra drive). But there are enough factors, mostly the Chiefs struggles in the 1Q this season, which makes this an attractive wager.
Pick:
First-Quarter Side: CAR +3 vs. KC (-115)
ARIZONA VS. SEATTLE -- TOTAL PLAY
- The O/U total on this full game was 48 points and is now likely headed downward. I caught it at 47.5 yesterday and bet the UNDER. I'm now seeing some 47s around town. The total could close even lower, assuming the weather forecasts are correct. There's a 90 percent chance of rain in Seattle on Sunday afternoon. That should make passing more difficult for both teams. We've seen news reports about the "bomb cyclone" that hit the Pacific Northwest late this week. I'm surprised the betting market didn't react more to adverse weather conditions. There's also some compelling evidence that defenses could enjoy some advantages. Both Arizona and Seattle are coming off much-improved defensive performances. The Cardinals' once-maligned defense has suddenly become better -- holding opponents to just 15 PPG during its current four-game win streak. The Cardinals are also running the ball far more frequently, with success -- which burns clock time. Arizona now ranks second in the NFL in the ratio of rushing to passing, and given Seattle's vulnerability to the run that game planning should continue this week. Seattle is capable of scoring and also allowing lots of points. However, their upset win last week at SFO (20-17) was the most impressive victory of the season and could reset the game plan to something similar for this game. It's hard to foresee QB Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense airing the ball out 50 times this week in the rain, in a big game, versus a division rival. Speaking of divisional games, these matchups between rivals tend to be 3-4 points lower scoring than non-division games (I need to update this data point, if possible). Catching a win on the key number of 47 is also a nice bonus. Looks like a strong bet at 47.5 and is still playable down to 47.
Pick:
Full-Game Total: ARZ-SEA UNDER 47.5
PHILADELPHIA VS. LA RAMS -- PLAYER PROP
- My final recommended bet of the week is a rare "player to score a touchdown--yes" proposition in Sunday night's Philadelphia-LA Rams matchup. First, let me share a bet that I almost made, but now am switching due to thinking this through. Probably, the best value on the player prop board is PHI QB Jalen Hurts to throw "OVER 1.5" touchdown passes, which is priced at a very generous +160. Hurts isn't a great bet for passing stats, but this number is way too enticing. The Eagles receivers are healthy, and could get into the end zone versus a pass defense that surrenders 1.8 TDs passes per game this season, which ranks #27 in the NFL. If this game gets to the 49 total, look for this prop to hit. Even though Hurts has passed for 2+ TDs in just four of 10 games this season, the Eagles have hit a stride and are an attractive wager at this price. Again, it's an underdog to hit, but the return is +160. This is simply mispriced, in my opinion. /// The reason I'm switching my bet to Hurts to score a rushing touchdown against the Rams is obvious. Hurts has become the Eagles best short-yardage threat and ball carrier. Anything near the goal line often triggers Hurts either plowing up the middle, or running outside into the end zone. His rushing TD stats the past five games have been staggering -- NINE TOUCHDOWNS SCORED and that includes a rushing TD in each of the past five weeks. Obviously, this is no fluke. Given the Eagles win streak and success inside the five-yard line with Hurts taking the ball, similar play-calling should continue. So, even though the lay price is -135 (high vig for any single player to score a TD in one game), Hurts is clearly an outlier. This leads me to explain why I'm declining to bet on the OVER 1.5 TD passes by Hurts. Even though that's a superior value, I also fear that any play inside the 5-yard line is less likely to be a pass, and more likely to be a run. Given the average number of TDs scored in most games by any single team is around 3, Hurts eating up one score with a rush hurts the passing TD projection (which is why that is valued at +160 as there's a correlation). Pick your best position here, but we can't bet them both. I wouldn’t blame anyone for opting for the passing TDs prop, but instead I'll go with Hurts to continue that unusual streak of a QB scoring a rushing TD. BTW, another rushing TD by Hurts this week ties him for an NFL record for most consecutive TDs rushing (6 would tie Justin Fields, when he did it with CHI a few seasons ago).
Pick:
Player Prop: PHI-LAR -- PHI QB Hurts to score a TD--yes (-135)
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 12 (For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop: PIT-CLE -- CLE QB WINSTON to throw an interception (yes at -200) ... {W}
Player Prop: PIT-CLE -- CLE RB CHUBB under 54.5 rushing yards (-115) ... {L]
Player Prop: DEN-LVR -- DEN QB NIX over 214.5 passing yards (-115)
Two-Team 5-Point Teaser -- HOU -2.5 vs. TEN / WAS -5 vs. DAL
Full-Game Side -- CHI +3.5 vs. MIN (-120)
Player Prop: DET vs. IND -- IND WR DOWNS over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
Player Prop: DET vs. IND -- IND PK GAY over 6.5 points (-120)
First-Quarter Side: CAR +3 vs. KC (-115)
Full-Game Total: ARZ-SEA UNDER 47.5
Player Prop: PHI-LAR -- PHI QB Hurts to score a TD--yes (-135)
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