2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 52
LOSSES — 37
PUSH — 2
NET WIN/LOSS — plus $590
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 5-5 (-$65)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 6):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 6 REPORT HERE
Full Game Side: Seattle +3.5 ... L
Player Prop: SFO QB Purdy OVER 247.5 passing yards (-115) ... W
First-Half Side: Arizona +3.5 (-120) ...L
Player Prop: ARZ QB Murray OVER 32.5 rushing yards (-115) ... L
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -175 ... W
Player Prop: CLE QB Watson UNDER 192.5 passing yards ... W
Player Prop: PIT PK Boswell OVER 6.5 points (-137) ... W
Player Prop: LV PK Carlson OVER 6.5 points (-110) ... L
Full-Game Side: Detroit -3 ... W
Full-Game Side: NY Giants +3.5 ... L
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Thursday Night Football - Broncos at Saints
Thursday night's interconference matchup between Denver and New Orleans presents an excellent handicapping puzzle with several possible positive expectation wagers. Though I don't see value in betting either side with the Broncos as a small road favorite on a short week, the quarterback-related props do offer a good chance to profit based on recent history and some presumptions that both young quarterbacks will make mistakes.
Let's begin with a positive performance related prop on Bo Nix, the rookie QB for Denver. So far, it's been a rough start to the season for the highly-touted Nix. He's tossed just 5 touchdown passes along with 5 interceptions. However, Nix has also seemed more comfortable and confident each week. Playing inside a dome at New Orleans will likely offer him better conditions than he's used to outdoors in Denver, at NY Jets (in a driving rainstorm), or on the road at Seattle. Nix has a positive directional trajectory pointing upward, yet his O/U on passing yardage is lower than the worst quarterbacks in the NFL (recall CLE D. Watson was O/U 192.5 last week). Inexplicably, Nix is listed this week (Westgate Las Vegas) at 186.5. That's off by --in my estimation-- at least 20 yards. I'm going OVER on Nix's passing yards. Start with Nix's last five games -- four of which sailed over this number. Recent form shows 216-206-60-216-246...and that lone "under" was in a rainstorm in NY two weeks ago. It's also important to note this is a Sean Payton-coached team (back in NOR for the first time since leaving the Saints) and he's an aggressive coach who likes to throw. Despite the rookie tag, Nix is sill averageing 34 passes per game, which is in the upper half of the NFL. He's also enjoyed completions of 19+ in 5/6 games, which means all he needs is roughly a 10 yard average, per completion, to break the passing yardage number. Finally, let's state the obvious: The Saints' defense got ass-greased for 51 points last week. This unit has surrendered 325-331-238-311-293-135 (and that 135 allowed was against Carolina's QB trashbag Young). Those numbers are horrible. I expect that even if Denver is leading, the Broncos will use this opportunity for Nix to throw and continue developing as the franchise quarterback.
The flip side of the prop on Nix is betting him to also throw at least one interception. That prospect is listed at YES-minus 140. Yes, the vig is high but rookies still make mistakes and if he matches jis 34 attempts per game average, I expect the New Orleans opportunistic defense will nab at least one turnover. Nix has tossed nearly one per game, though he's improved accuracy in the last few weeks. Note that Nix's vig on the interception-YES prop is higher than the rookie QB on the other side of the ball....why is this so given the Broncos are favored and Nix has slightly more game experience? Easy answer -- the Saints have already tallied 10 interceptions in 6 games, well above the league average. I suspect that opposing coaches know this defense gives up yardage, so they throw more and a few of those extra balls get intercepted.
It might seem correlated, but it's more coincidental. I'm also liking the Saints' rookie QB Rattler to get picked off at least once. He's listed at interception-YES at -130. We don't have lots of data on Rattler given that he's only played in one NFL game. But let's agree he put up a gutsy performance last week at home versus Tampa Bay. No one expected much from the 5th-round draft pick, but he got New Orleans to 24 points, passed for 247 yards, completed 61 pct. of passes -- and also threw TWO interceptions. I actually foresee those decent numbers will give the Saints' offensive staff enough confidence to let him air it out this week. He threw 40 times last week. The more a rookie QB puts the ball up, the more opportunity we have to cash as these props are always a law-of-large-numbers game. If Rattler is playing from behind, that's even a better situation for the QB to toss a pick.
Final thought: We have two rookie QBs starting this week in short prep time. We are betting both QBs to toss at least one interception. The prospect of BOTH starters not making a mistake and throwing a pick seems highly unlikely. A split here isn't exactly satisfying. But I simply can't imagine we won't see at least one interception in this game, combined with compelling reasons to bet Nix's passing yardage OVER the total. Of course, these props are always a bit risky with QB injuries and concussion protocols. We've already lost two QB prop bets this season due to early-game QB injuries, which are impossible to predict.
Picks:
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix OVER 186.5 passing yards (-115)
Player Prop: QB Bo Nix to throw an interception--YES (-140)
Player Prop: QB S. Rattler to throw an interception--YES (-130)
::::: Check Back Regularly through Sunday for Updates :::::
FINAL PICKS FOR THE WEEK (For those who just want the picks):
::::: Coming Soon ::::::
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