2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 89
LOSSES — 71
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — +$526
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 4-6 (-$285)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,526
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 12):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 12 REPORT HERE
Player Prop: PIT-CLE -- CLE QB WINSTON to throw an interceptions (yes at -200) ... {W}
Player Prop: PIT-CLE -- CLE RB CHUBB under 54.5 rushing yards (-115) ... {L}
Player Prop: DEN-LVR -- DEN QB NIX over 214.5 passing yards (-115) ... {W}
Two-Team 5-Point Teaser -- HOU -2.5 vs. TEN / WAS -5 vs. DAL ... {L}
Full-Game Side -- CHI +3.5 vs. MIN (-120) ... {W}
Player Prop: DET vs. IND -- IND WR DOWNS over 54.5 receiving yards (-115) ... {L}
Player Prop: DET vs. IND -- IND PK GAY over 6.5 points (-120) .... {L}
First-Quarter Side: CAR +3 vs. KC (-115) ... {L}
Full-Game Total: ARZ-SEA UNDER 47.5 ... {W}
Player Prop: PHI-LAR -- PHI QB Hurts to score a TD--yes (-135) ... {L}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 13)
NY GIANTS VS. DALLAS -- PLAYER PROP
Match Line: Cowboys -3.5 / O/U: 37.5
This initially looked to be a highly-anticipated NFC East showdown when the season first started. Now, it’s more like the battle for the basement, between two teams hoping to stay out of last place. This is clearly the biggest turkey of the day. That's because both teams have been mired in a mid-season tailspin–especially the hapless NY Giants which can't move the ball on offense, let alone score enough points to win a game. Based on this week's media reports about lots of internal squabbling and finger pointing, the 2-9 Giants appear to have mailed it in for the season. Similar criticism may have applied to Dallas also, but that was before the surprising Cowboys stunned Washington last week in a thrilling road upset. We'll see if that shocking confidence builder carries over to this week's game---I’m leaning to the affirmative. Let’s consider who’s the more motivated team…..Dallas has been historically bad at home, setting a number of dubious records for ineptitude by losing by 20+ points in every game played this season at Arlington. However, that could lead to added incentive to do well and restore some pride here at home on Thanksgiving Day. Dallas should be able to finally end their ugly streak and keep this one close at the very least, and likely pull out the win versus a rival they've dominated in recent years. Note that Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games vs. NY Giants. Admittedly we can throw out most of the trends and stats because now both teams are starting backup QBs. Furthermore, one – if not both coaching staffs – are likely to be axed at the end of the season.
Dallas is my lean in this game laying -3.5. That said, the more compelling wager looks to be a player prop on Cowboys QB Cooper Rush to go over the number in passing yardage. Rush was horrid in his first start (vs. Phila.) but has also shown steady improvement in each of the last three weeks. Rush has put up 600 yards passing combined in his last two games -- throwing for 354 and 247 yards respectively against Houston and Washington. The total here is 209.5, a relatively low figure, which can be eclipsed by multiple outcomes. Assuming the Cowboys are trailing or in a tight game, Rush can be expected to put up another 35-40 pass attempts this week. But even if the Cowboys are leading, I expect that Dallas after being so beat up in the press and among their home fans want to make a bold statement after playing so poorly at home for so many consecutive games. Moreover, if Dallas is to have any shot at sneaking back into the NFC playoff hunt, it's Rush who will lead them on offense and nothing would be better for him and this team than to a roll-up-the-stats-and-score blowout. Also helping the QB stat count, Dallas is also fortunate to have one breakaway WR capable of changing the game on his own, with Lamb now coming into form like we saw last season. Lamb has been targeted more than a dozen times and caught nearly that many passes in each game since Rush has been under center. The duo are now more comfortable with each other, which could lead to a big play or two. The Giants defense surrendered nearly 300 yards to Tampa Bay's QB Mayfield in last week's game and Rush could approach that number again. So, this appears to be a good OVER wager.
Pick:
Player Prop -- NYG vs. DAL QB RUSH over 209.5 passing yards (-115)
CHICAGO VS. DETROIT -- PLAYER PROP
Line: Lions -10 / O/U: 48
The 10-1 Lions are the NFL highest-scoring team. They've also won 9 straight games and appear to be unstoppable. In the early game, Detroit faces Chicago on a short week. This looks like a bad mismatch. The Bears have fallen into last place and lost 4 straight. These are the reasons why the Lions are laying such a big number to the struggling Bears. However, don't be so quick to lay the points. Note that division rivalries can be tricky. In fact, the Bears last two defeats (to division rivals Green Bay by 1 and Minnesota by 3) were both winnable games in which Chicago covered the pointspread. Key Trends: Since 2005, double-digit favorites are 9-0 ATS in Thanksgiving Day games. Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games. Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 home games.
We expect Detroit will be ahead much of the game, which forces Chicago to throw more passes and be more aggressive. Look for RB D'Andre Swift to get plenty of touches in this game, mostly on rushing attempts, but also a few passes, as well. In fact, it's the passing yardage which I expect will push this number over the total of 63.5 rushing and receiving yards (combined). Swift has the talent to get to 64+ on the ground alone, but when we also consider he's nabbing nearly 3 catches per game on average, that could tally some insurance yardage. Note that in last week's game, Swift caught a 30-yard pass completion, which may give QB Williams more confidence to throw in his direction going forward. The big stat on combined yardage is targets and touches -- and Swift usually gets enough numbers to eclipse his stat projections. He's had 16+ touches (carries and receptions) in eight straight games, so as long as we get that number, we hope he gets the real estate to go with it. But I really like Swift's breakaway potential, with both 50+ and 40+ long plays on the ground and in the air, so far this season. So, he could take any ball potentially to the house for a long gain.
Pick:
Player Prop -- CHI vs. DET RB SWIFT over 63.5 (combined) rushing and receiving yards (-117)
LA RAMS VS. NEW ORLEANS -- PLAYER PROP
- After a dreadful midseason slide, New Orleans has very quietly won its last two games. This would have sounded ridiculous to say a month ago, but the Saints could still win this sad excuse for a division–at currently two games behind and no team playing well at the moment. No doubt, New Orleans is a much more solid team and offensive threat with Carr back at QB and healthy again. He makes lots of mistakes throughout his career, but also can be counted on to rack up decent stats, his numbers enhanced by a talented supporting cast of receiving targets. Carr's O/U on passing yardage this week is just 215.5, which seems quite low. I missed the betting boat on Carr a few weeks ago when he returned from injury and was projected at about this same number (I strongly considered betting it, but skipped the easy winner because I had money on the opposing team). Carr's last three passing yardage figures show 248-269-236. What’s to suggest these figures will suddenly drop off? This week, he's off a bye and the Saints' offense should be at full strength. This looks like a good spot for New Orleans to put up points and perform well. A third straight home game also helps, as the Superdome is always friendly to the passing game. Meanwhile, the Rams pass defense is nothing special, ranking #19 in the NFL in yardage allowed.
Pick:
Player Prop -- LAR vs. NOR QB CARR over 215.5 passing yard
TAMPA BAY VS. CAROLINA -- PLAYER PROP
- It might not always show in my betting selections each week, but I look for opportunities to fade popular perception. This applies to player stats, which seemingly would be skewed towards the OVER on many players, especially stars and quarterbacks. Let's face it--it takes money and guts to bet UNDER on many players where so many stats can swing on a play or two, and numbers can be skewed by extra yardage in "trash time." That said, I'm going OVER on Bucs QB Baker Mayfield to pass for more than 1.5 touchdowns. Tampa Bay plays Carolina this week, which is a perfect punching bag for opposing quarterbacks given they rank near the bottom of nearly every defensive statistical category. /// Mayfield has thrown 24 TD passes this season, which averages out to 2 per game. Keep in mind some of those matchups were against tougher defenses, so we can project the odds on Mayfield tossing 2+ against a terrible defense to be much better than average. I also like the return of WR Mike Evans, who played last week but didn't break into the end zone. This looks like the perfect breakout game for Evans and the Bucs who appear primed to make a run in the division. Mayfield has thrown to 2+ TD passes in 7 of 12 games. Let's add the abysmal stat for the Panthers defense which shows a dead last #32 ranking, allowing 3.5 TDs per game, 2/3rds of which were through the air.
Pick:
Player Prop: TB vs. CAR QB MAYFIELD over 1.5 TD passes (-115)
LAS VEGAS VS. KANSAS CITY -- PLAYER PROP
- I'm betting on Raiders veteran placekicker Daniel Carlson to go over 5.5 points. I've written about the value of kicker props drying up (I started betting and writing about them three years ago -- but now the market has caught on and they're nearly dead). Back then, I used to see absurdly low kicking totals, often at 5.5, sometimes 4.5, and even some 3.5s on really bad teams. Those low kicker scoring numbers was like Christmas morning. Even bad teams break down in red zones and tend to kick FGs. So, this type of wager is sometimes counterintuitive. That plays into my thinking here as we get a lower than average point total (6.5 is average in betting markets)....with an excellent kicker....on a team that has just enough talent to move the ball, but should stall a few times, resulting (hopefully) in 2+ FGs. Carlson has always been solid, and he hasn't missed a FG attempt in 8 weeks (17 straight made). Carlson is 22/24 for the season, even with a really bad team and putrid offense. In his last five games, Carlson scored 13-7-6-8-15 points respectively including 8 points scored in Week 8. Las Vegas is starting O'Connell at QB, which likely isn't a dropoff from Minshew, who produced a woeful 2-8 W-L record. The new QB might even five the struggling Raiders a boost. Let's also note Kansas City is 10-1 because of smoke and mirrors, winning late in several close games this season. They surrendered 27 points to the Panthers last week, and 30 to the Bills, which isn't nearly as embarrassing, but still--this defense has some holes. Look for Carlson to get a few shots and who knows -- maybe some extra points, as well.
Pick:
Player Prop -- LV vs. KC CARLSON OVER 5.5 points (-121)
PITTSBURGH VS. CINCINNATI -- STEELERS +3
- Bettors keep on expecting Cincinnati to win a big game and suddenly jump back into playoff contention. But that optimism has been a mirage for nearly a dozen games now, and all the Bengals have done is disappoint bettors and fans alike. Cincy backers can rightfully point to an offense that ranks at or near the top in several categories, but that's due in part to the Bengals defense being so bad that the only way to win games is by outscoring opponents. Cincy throws nearly 64 percent of its plays and its talented skill players produce lots of impressive stats. But winning games that count is something else entirely. Betting the Steelers here comes down to historical trends that simply can't be ignored. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is 63-36 SU when coming off a loss which includes covering the spread at a 57 percent rate. When Pittsburgh gets points in this situation, they cover at a 65 percent rate (since 2007) in those scenarios (21-11 ATS). After getting punked by the Browns 10 days ago, I don’t see another dud of a performance repeating back to back, especially given Pittsburgh has played so well since QB Wilson took over. Let’s also keep in mind the Steelers' defense remains ranked in the Top-5 and this team is still in first place. Getting +3 in just about any NFC North game almost always tempts us to grab the dog and the points. When it's the better team we're betting on, with historical trends in its favor, that makes the play even stronger.
Pick:
Full-Game Side -- PIT vs. CIN: STEELERS +3 (-120)
TENN vs. WASH
- Take the Titans in the 1H getting +3.5. Tennessee showed life on offense last week and perhaps their wildly inconsistent QB problems are stabilizing. But these bets are more of a fade against Washington, which has dropped three straight games and shouldn't be laying more than a FG in the 1H given they've not played a solid game in five weeks. I'll also bite on the Titans for the full game since we're getting +6.
Picks:
First-Half Side -- TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +3.5 (-115)
Full-Game Side -- TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +6
LAR vs. NOR
- I bet the Carr prop on passing yardage earlier then added the Saints as a home dog. The line is +2.5 in some spots, but also +3 laying -120, which looks to have value assuming we think this should be a close game. The Rams got gashed for nearly 300 yards on the ground last week, and facing a Saints rushing game that's also decent, I'm not sure why LA is laying points on the road. The mindset in New Orleans is critical here -- their new head coach has won his first two games, and off the bye with a now healthy team, that should play into a highly-motivated Saints effort against a team that lacks consistency.
Pick:
Full-Game Side -- LAR vs. NOR: NEW ORLEANS +3 (-120)
TB vs. CAR
- Credit the Panthers to playing tough the last three weeks, including nearly upsetting the Chiefs. If they bring that level of performance again, they'll cover the line here, and perhaps even win it. The thing is, young inexperienced inconsistent teams rarely string together strong efforts multiple weeks in a row. This looks like a bad letdown spot for Carolina, which faces an explosive Tampa Bay offense that should be able to move the ball at will. Even when the Bucs were down to a grab bag of WRs due to injuries, they still moved the ball well and scored points. Now, much healthier and motivated by the possibility of being back into contention for the division lead, look for QB Mayfield and the Bucs' offense to cover this line. As much as Carolina's offense has improved, we've seen no evidence they can slow down teams with deep passing threats. Recall last week's dominant effort by the Bucs at NYG. I'm not sure it will be that easy again, but we've seen what the Bucs can do when at full strength and playing an outclassed opponent. Note that it's important here to lay -5.5 and not -6 (lines vary).
Pick:
Full-Game Side -- TB vs. CAR: TAMPA -5.5
LAC vs. ATL
- This is the biggest game of the year for the Falcons, who looked like shit in their last two games. It's easy to malign Atlanta, given their softness and glaring inconsistencies, but this looks like a bold statement game for this team which is very much alive to win the NFC South despite their poor play recently. The bye week should help with preparation, and back at home, Atlanta is an attractive side, especially getting a small number of points. Meanwhile, we can agree that the Chargers have turned things around and have a new tougher mindset. That said, oddsmakers may be giving this team too much credit to make them a road favorite against a 6-5 team with a veteran QB and decent offensive lineup.
Pick:
Full-Game Side -- LAC vs. ATL: ATLANTA +1.5
INDY vs. NWE
- I've been in the Colts saddle much of the season, choosing to bet on them many weeks when they were dogs (with mixed results). Now suddenly, they are laying points on the road, and by points, I mean a full FG. That's absurd. Watching Indy's effort last week versus a vulnerable Lions' defense was painful. We saw costly penalties, poor throws, bad play-calling, and a miserable effort that failed to produce a point in the final 40 minutes of the game. Sure, this is a big step down in class for the Colts. But New England is making steps and has shown life in its last five games, especially on offense. This should be a close game and I no longer trust the Colts, so I'll take the home dog plus the FG.
Pick:
Full-Game Side – INDY vs. NWE: NEW ENGLAND +3 (-120) ... Risking $600 to win $500
SEA vs. NYJ -- PLAYER PROP
- Betting UNDER on QB yardage props can be volatile. We've even seen "bad" QBs on losing teams throw for more yards than expected -- so what about first-place teams with experienced QBs with impressive stat lines? Fading those QBs seems especially risky. No doubt, SEA QB Smith puts up impressive numbers. He's the one QB who can throw for 400 yards any given week (add Burrow to this list, of course). However, this is a really bad spot for him, at least statistically speaking. Seattle comes off a huge win, and now travels East and faces a team off their bye. The Jets have been a laughing stock most of the season, but for all their comedy of errors, the defense has played decent. The NYJ pass defense is especially tough, ranking #2 in the NFL in yardage allowed at 175 YPG, and #1 at home where they surrender only 142 YPG to opposing QBs. This prop would have been much more attractive with Metcalf and Fant listed as questionable mid-week, but apparently they will play. Still, no matter who plays for the Seahawks, I see value in taking a highly-ranked pass defense and betting against Smith who has come short of this target in 3 of his last 5 games.
Pick:
Player Prop -- SEA vs. NYJ: QB SMITH UNDER 234.5 passing yards (-115)
SFO vs. BUF (SNF)
- It's tough to step in front of the roaring freight train that is the Buffalo Bills right now. However, given the weather forecast for possible heavy snow on SNF in Buffalo, I think that slows down both teams and makes this lower scoring. This should help the dog getting points. Getting QB Purdy back is critical for the 49ers, who looked dreadful last week. Betting markets have overestimated the 49ers all of this season, with disappointing results. Now, they may have overreacted in the opposite direction. For all their issues and disappointments so far in this 5-6 season, the 49ers remain alive in the NFC West. They're well-coached and have enough skill players to change any game in their favor. While playing Buffalo right now is a tough test, this looks to be too many points, especially if the field gets hammered with snow. In that case, SFO may have some advantages with its rushing attack.
Pick:
Full-Game Side -- SFO vs. BUF: SAN FRANCISCO +7
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 13 (For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop -- NYG vs. DAL QB RUSH over 209.5 passing yards (-115) ... {L}
Player Prop -- CHI vs. DET RB SWIFT over 63.5 (combined) rushing and receiving yards (-117) ... {W}
Player Prop -- LV vs. KC CARLSON OVER 5.5 points (-121) ... {L}
Full-Game Side -- PIT vs. CIN: STEELERS +3 (-120)
First-Half Side -- TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +3.5 (-115)
Full-Game Side -- TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +6
Full-Game Side -- LAR vs. NOR: NEW ORLEANS +3 (-120)
Player Prop -- LAR vs. NOR QB CARR over 215.5 passing yards
Full-Game Side -- TB vs. CAR: TAMPA -5.5
Player Prop: TB vs. CAR QB MAYFIELD over 1.5 TD passes (-115)
Full-Game Side -- LAC vs. ATL: ATLANTA +1.5
Full-Game Side – INDY vs. NWE: NEW ENGLAND +3 (-120)
Player Prop -- SEA vs. NYJ: QB SMITH UNDER 234.5 passing yards (-115)
Full-Game Side -- SFO vs. BUF: SAN FRANCISCO +7
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