2024 NFL BETTING RECORD:
WINS — 94
LOSSES — 81
PUSH — 3
NET WIN/LOSS — -$110
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS — 5-10 (-$636)
STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $9,890
ALL WAGERS ARE FOR $100 EACH AND ARE PRICED AT THE STANDARD 110/100 VIG, (UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE)
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS (WEEK 13):
Results from Betcoin.ag Report: READ FULL WEEK 13 REPORT HERE
Player Prop — NYG vs. DAL QB RUSH over 209.5 passing yards (-115) … L}
Player Prop — CHI vs. DET RB SWIFT over 63.5 (combined) rushing-receiving yards (-117) …{W}
Player Prop — LV vs. KC CARLSON OVER 5.5 points (-121) …{L}
Full-Game Side — PIT vs. CIN: STEELERS +3 (-120) …{W}
First-Half Side — TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +3.5 (-115) …{L}
Full-Game Side — TEN vs. WASH: TENNESSEE +6 …{L}
Full-Game Side — LAR vs. NOR: NEW ORLEANS +3 (-120) …{L}
Player Prop — LAR vs. NOR QB CARR over 215.5 passing yards …{L}
Full-Game Side — TB vs. CAR: TAMPA -5.5 …{L}
Player Prop: TB vs. CAR QB MAYFIELD over 1.5 TD passes (-115) …{L}
Full-Game Side — LAC vs. ATL: ATLANTA +1.5 .. …{L}
Full-Game Side – INDY vs. NWE: NEW ENGLAND +3 (-120) …{W}
Player Prop — SEA vs. NYJ: QB SMITH UNDER 234.5 passing yards (-115) …{W}
Full-Game Side — SFO vs. BUF: SAN FRANCISCO +7 …{L}
Player Prop -- CLE vs DEN: DEN WR C. Sutton OVER 66.5 receiving yards …{W}
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS AND PICKS (Week 14)
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- PLAYER PROP
Who wants to bet against the 11-1 Detroit Lions right now? I sure don't. Taking the visiting Green Bay Packers +3.5 in a division rivalry game would normally be automatic. However, I see greener pastures elsewhere, most notably in a rushing-yardage player prop.
Packers RB Josh Jacobs has rushed for nearly 1,000 yards on 221 attempts, which averages out to 82.3 YPG. However, his O/U on yardage is only 68.5 in this matchup. Jacobs is coming off a subpar game vs. Miami (but then, Green Bay won easily--so there was no urgency to overuse Jacobs). That may trigger a more motivated effort in this game, which is the Packers' biggest test this season. In this first matchup, which was a month ago, Detroit dominated the Packers in Green Bay. That said, Jacobs still picked up 95 yards on 13 carries. Jacobs has played 3 games vs. Detroit, averaging 92 YPG. Jacobs has also hit the OVER on his rushing yardage O/U in 8 of 12 games this season.
The last thing the Packers want is an offensive shootout. Few teams can compete with the Lions' explosive offense, so look for Green Bay to try to maintain ball control, with more runs that usual (unless they fall badly behind). The Packers already run more than league average, 52 percent of the time (passing 48 percent). That comes out to 31 rush attempts per game, and Jacobs has taken a whopping 59 percent of all team carries (221 for the season). This all means Jacobs should get a fair number of touches.
Don't be fooled by the Lions' impressive defensive ranking against the run this season. They are the NFL's #5 rushing defense, but that's due in some measure to opponents trailing in most second halves and abandoning the run while having to pass. When it comes to yards-per-carry, Detroit is actually very average--ranking #15 (4.4 YPC). If Jacobs gets anywhere near his 20 carries per game on Thursday, he'll only need about 3.8 YPC to reach the 69 yard mark.
However, the biggest factor in the Jacobs OVER 68.5 yards player prop is Detroit's injury report on defense. The Lions will be thin on the defensive line and at linebacker, but relatively healthy in the secondary, which probably adds to more rushing carries in the Packers' game plan. Of course, the biggest injury by far was to DE A. Hutchinson, a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate prior to his season ending six weeks ago. But since then, the Lions have lost more starters and look particularly vulnerable this week when matched up against a good offense. LT T. Decker....DL J. Paschal (knee)....DL L. Onwuzurike (hamstring)....and DT DJ Reader (shoulder) all missed practices this week. For the second day in a row, as of Wednesday the Lions were down four key linemen and the news doesn’t look good for any of them, most notably Decker. “I don’t feel as good about Decker for this week,” Lions head coach Campbell said on Tuesday. Many handicappers (myself included) tend to overestimate the impact of defensive injuries. The dropoff in talent isn't always what it seems. Nonetheless, if Jacobs' O/U was 68.5 versus a healthy Lions' defense, the OVER would still be a good bet based on the data. The fact we also get to factor in a weaker front 4/7 from the Lions in this matchup only adds to its appeal.
Pick:
Player Prop -- GB vs. DET: LIONS RB J. JACOBS OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
ATLANTA VS. MINNESOTA -- O/U WAGER
Betting on either the Atlanta Falcons or Kirk Cousins to win/cover in a big game has been like lighting money on fire. Seriously, this team and QB have historically been bankroll busters in games that count the most. But let's also agree for RTTM (return-to-the-mean) bettors, that the Falcons +5.5 are the ultimate contrarian pick this week playing at Minnesota. The wingless Falcons have looked like shit for three straight weeks, especially on offense. Consider their downward trajectory: After sitting comfortably in first-place a month ago, now these frauds have managed to score just 34 points in their last three games. Going on the road here off one of QB K. Cousin's most self-destructive games seems like a great fade spot, but I see some things that will likely work in the Falcons' favor this week. That will put me on a wager where I expect points to be scored.
Let's start with the Cousins' factor, who is playing in very familiar territory against his old team. Cousins is familiar with MIN DC Flores’ defensive schemes. The Vikings also run one of the highest usages of zone coverage (second most).....Cousins is a far superior QB versus zones. He boasts a 71 pct. completion rate against zone coverage -- compared to just 52 versus man-to-man coverage. In fact, his passer rating of 105.0 against zone defenses, which would rank #4 in the NFL if that were a subcategory. Good sign this week could be an improvement for Cousins and the Falcons.
Meanwhile, Minnesota's once-highly acclaimed defense has declined in recent games. It's pass defense now ranks #28 in yards allowed per game. And that ugly stat includes games against Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, and Will Levis within the last month -- plus, the Vikings' defense gave up 340 yards to Caleb Williams and 260 yards to Kyler Murray. We can probably expect Atlanta to approach those numbers.
If this all sounds like a play on Atlanta, it's not. The smarter wager appears to be OVER 45.5 in a game that could be high scoring. There's no way I want to touch the Falcons' defense with my money. Atlanta ranks #25 in yardage allowed and 22nd in points allowed (24 PPG). Minnesota could very well torch this defense, especially given this week is their first game back in the comforts of a dome after three straight outdoor road games. Minnesota’s numbers are much better indoors.If this game was played three weeks ago, before the Falcons' struggles, the total would have been closer to 50. We're now getting a favorable number at 45.5, which might be an overreaction to Atlanta's fade of late. Let's agree--the NFL is an unpredictable game and teams sometimes break out of recent form. I expect that to happen with the Falcons' offense this week, and the Vikings' to also reach their season averages. This means we should get an OVER and perhaps even a shootout.
Pick:
Full-Game Total -- ATL vs. MIN OVER 45.5 points
PITTSBURGH MONEYLINE
- I'm making one of my biggest bets of the season on Pittsburgh hosting Cleveland, this week. The Steelers are -275 on the moneyline. Pittsburgh should win this game easily. Historically speaking, the Steelers at home have dominated the Browns -- winning 19 of the last 20. Given that Pittsburgh is 9-3 and facing 3-9 Cleveland, laying the nearly 1:3 price sounds reasonable. But the bigger reason for backing Pittsburgh is revenge. The Browns stunned the Steelers a few weeks ago in Cleveland, but that was on a short week. Now, it's the Browns who are on the short week and have to travel for a second straight game. Based on the previous upset, Pittsburgh won't be taking their rival lightly this time. They can't afford to, since the Steelers have a murderer's row of opponents coming in the next three games, including Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City. A loss here could make the AFC North division crown much tougher. Pittsburgh's offense came to life last week with a 44-point output in Cincy. The Browns have been torched defensively as the season progressed and now they rank near the bottom of most categories. So, the Steelers should be primed to put up another impressive showing. We've all seen that Browns' QB Winston is a real Jekyll-Hyde player, capable of throwing 400+ yards in any game, but he's also been a turnover machine. That's not good as the Steelers' defense ranks #1 in takeaways. I have a hard time believing the Browns are capable of shaking off a high-scoring loss in Denver last Monday night, going back on the road, and winning at Pittsburgh where they've enjoyed just one victory in 20 years. Motivation edge to Steelers. Coaching edge of Steelers. Defensive edge to Steelers. Home field edge to Steelers (average margin of victory at home this season--10 points). I’ll go with the favorite both on the moneyline and versus the spread.
Picks:
Moneyline -- CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS (-275)
Full-Game Side -- CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS -6.5
RAIDERS' QB PASSING YARDAGE -- OVER
- The Raiders (2-10) are a horrible team but they look like a good bet to accumulate decent passing yardage this week playing at Tampa Bay. QB Aiden O'Connell is remembered for the disastrous fumble last week (bad snap, actually) that cost Las Vegas a monumental upset opportunity at Kansas City. However, O'Connell also threw for 340 yards and two TDs, finishing with one of the highest passer ratings (116.2) of the week. He gets to face a much softer defense this week at Tampa Bay. The yardage total on O’Connell spiked from 215 last week to 235.5 in this game. Nevertheless, I think that number is still very bettable to the OVER. The Raiders pass the ball more than any other team in the NFL (67 percent of all offensive plays), so O'Connell should get his opportunities for yardage. We should also expect Las Vegas to be playing from behind much of the game, which usually means extra yardage, especially against prevent defenses. Tampa Bay ranks #30 in pass defense this season, at 258 YPG through the air. We get the benefit of 22 fewer yards needed here with the struggling Raiders. With a nothing-to-lose mentality, Las Vegas should be able to move the ball and eclipse this player prop O/U. Also note the porous Bucs' pass defense allowed 298 last week to Carolina's Bryce Young, one of the worst QBs in the league, statistically speaking. O'Connell can put up a similar number.
Pick:
Player Prop -- LV-TB: LV QB O'CONNELL OVER 235.5
SEA vs. ARZ -- CARDINALS -2.5
- These two teams match up about even. However, now riding a two-game losing streak the Cardinals are the far more desperate team which means this has become the most important game of the season for the redbirds. The setting is favorable for a victory. Arizona is 4-2 SU at home – and 5 of those games were against playoff contenders. They should have won last week on the road, too -- but were ineffective in the red zone (1 TD in 6 visits) which cost them the game. Just two weeks ago, Seattle beat Arizona 16-6 and now the rematch happens. Revenge games can tricky. The losing team tends to make adjustments, and I expect that will happen here. Arizona is 8-4 ATS, one of the best records in the league. Most data points show this game to be a toss up. However, handicapping sometimes requires us to trust instincts and mine tell me that Arizona will rise to the occasion here and cover the number, below a field goal.
Pick:
Full-Game Side -- SEA vs. ARZ: ARIZONA -2.5
CHICAGO BEARS UPSET
- I'm calling for a Chicago Bears' upset of the 49ers on Sunday. Accordingly, I'm betting the Bears on two tickets -- both at +165 on the moneyline and +3.5 on the pointspread. One fundamental betting trend that applies to all team sports is that when the coach or manager gets fired, bet that team in its first/next game. The emotional shakeup and change of personnel in midseason often ignites a superior effort among the roster, which we witnessed a few weeks ago after the Saints fired their head coach and then won the next two games. The Bears have been a strange team – despite a 4-8 SU record, they’ve scored more points than they’ve surrendered. Moreover, for all of these problems during the ugly current six-game losing streak, Chicago has never given up. They've been competitive in most games. The Bears are 3-0 ATS the last three weeks, and that included a trio of brutal NFC North playoff-bound opponents which are a combined 31 wins and 7 losses. Hard to believe, but San Francisco is now a step down in class. Even when the Bears blew it last week, what was most impressive was the fact they rallied from a 19-0 deficit. That tells us this team is still fighting. Meanwhile, who knows what's wrong with the 49ers. Sure, some injuries should take a toll. However, this team looks lost, evidenced by 28- and 25-point losses the last two weeks. San Francisco, once known for explosiveness, hasn't broken the 20+ point mark in a month. This has been a horrible year for the 49ers, so they look like a perfect target to fade given the disparity of efforts btween these teams. The Bears should make a game of this and are attractive wagers getting more than a FG and also at a generous price returning +165.
- Picks:
Moneyline -- CHI vs. SFO: BEARS (+165)
Full-Game Side -- CHI vs. SFO: BEARS +3.5
MNF: DALLAS COWBOYS +5.5
- Record-wise, this game looks like a real clunker. Two teams going nowhere will face off, which actually could be an entertaining game. The Bengals are laying too many points here. I'm confused as to why betting markets continue to overvalue Cincinnati. Sure, the cat's offense ranks at or near the top of many statistical categories, but the Bengals' defense is atrocious -- giving up 44-34-35-24-37 in its previous five games. Dallas has been equally disappointing this season, but credit the Cowboys for a two-game winning streak. The offense also is playing better with the backup QB Rush. BTW, recall a few seasons ago when DAL hosted CIN at home in Rush's first start, he led the Cowboys to an upset. Now appearing on MNF for the second time in four weeks, and fresh from a 10-day rest, we should expect the Cowboys to keep this game close. WHo knows what mindset Cincy will be in after getting hammered at home in its previous game against rival Pittsburgh. I'll go with Dallas both in the first half and for the full-game.
Pick:
First-Half Side -- CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +3.5 (-120)
Full-Game Side -- CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +5.5
FINAL PICKS FOR Week 13 (For those who just want the picks):
Player Prop -- GB vs. DET: LIONS RB J. JACOBS OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
Full-Game Total -- ATL vs. MIN OVER 45.5 points
Player Prop -- LV-TB: LV QB O'CONNELL OVER 235.5
Moneyline -- CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS (-275)
Full-Game Side -- CLE vs. PIT: STEELERS -6.5
Full-Game Side -- SEA vs. ARZ: ARIZONA -2.5
Moneyline -- CHI vs. SFO: BEARS (+165)
Full-Game Side -- CHI vs. SFO: BEARS +3.5
First-Half Side -- CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +3.5 (-120)
Full-Game Side -- CIN vs. DAL: COWBOYS +5.5
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